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Taking marketplace sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/30119;5;u17
10/16: $350
10/21: $450
11/17: $310
12/26: $330
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977705860#!/compare/1539993600/1540080000
GE Brotherhood, 293k
198k, 250k, 178k, 182k, 293k
also a sale for 140 pure, looks like a quickbuy
Taking 178-250
new sales
this looks to be much higher than the sales here - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198227756380#!/compare/1548633600/1548806400
sale 2 - 320 keys - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977705860#!/compare/1544659200/1544832000
got a feeling mostof those sales are on the low-side looking at the sales we got now, id take a look and see what sale 1 is gonna come out too and we go from there.
Sale 2 was not 320, it was for the beams law. Both histories match but quickbuy orders on beams law and beams casemaker differ by around 200 keys for whatever reason, evidenced by current buy orders on both hats.
I think it's safe to count the first sale off as an outlier with 320 keys gone, but it's really up to you
the 140 is most likely the sale on the beams casemaker. 340 is for the law. That'd make much more sense. I bet sunjar bought both at different times, maybe that's why the histories match.
Im having issues finding all the item histories that belong to the marketplace sales.
https://backpack.tf/item/5149484577 fairly sure this one belongs to the dec 26 sale for instance, not showing mp in the history, indicating it instantly sold.
https://backpack.tf/item/6663341874 this matches oct 16 but didnt actually sell that day since it moves to and from the same dude. Perhaps the sale after that is oct 21 indicating that too sold before the MP bot even registered it.
With what we have here I would not rely on the marketplace sales but instead use the item sales here to give this a less extreme step down