Sale 1:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135474464#!/compare/1546560000/1546646400

https://backpack.tf/item/6779444033

https://i.imgur.com/sMOTHGR.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 8

Sale 2:

Sold for 7 keys + 22 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

https://backpack.tf/item/1703050797

https://i.imgur.com/RgyTjzT.png

While the buyer’s name doesn’t appear in the history, it’s pretty clear that they bought the unusual, then dumped it on tradeit.

Similar situation can be found on sales 2-4 here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c2b4128cf6c75144a76ba30

X = 7.5

Sale :3

Sold to a quickbuyer for 6 keys + 18 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175644318#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044335614#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/item/3343511287

X = 6.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7360173437 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7354881060 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7131843762 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6779444033 (#4 & #5)

https://backpack.tf/item/4438232386 (#6 & #7)

https://backpack.tf/item/4096560450 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/1829018718 (#9)

https://backpack.tf/item/831529131 (#10)

https://backpack.tf/item/1703050797 - most likely scammed, then bought from a scammer, labelled as a 6 key + 22 ref purchase on bot.tf

https://backpack.tf/item/1630169223 - scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/1473208106 - not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/1309467533 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/2421722896 - marketplace

#1

Bulk for pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1546905600/1546992000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102861548#!/compare/1546732800/1546992000

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065908363#!/compare/1544572800/1544659200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1544486400/1544572800

https://i.imgur.com/sMOTHGR.png - labelled as a 6 key + 22.33 ref purchase on bot.tf

#3

Bulk for Purple Energy Coldsnap Cap

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171055663#!/compare/1546819200/1546905600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1546819200/1546905600

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056163566#!/compare/1545091200/1547164800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1545091200/1545177600

#5

Untraceable, most likely a missing person in the history (these two bots are unlikely to trade directly with each other

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1545782400/1545868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1545782400/1545868800

https://i.imgur.com/sMOTHGR.png - labelled as a 6 key + 22.66 ref purchase

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035850223#!/compare/1544918400/1545177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

#7

Untraceable, probably scm

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1545436800/1545523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137193856#!/compare/1539302400/1546819200

#8

Untraceable, similar to #5, most likely a missing person in the history

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198830963112#!/compare/1545004800/1545091200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1545004800/1545091200

https://i.imgur.com/sMOTHGR.png - labelled as a 6 key + 22.33 ref purchase on bot.tf

#9

Untraceable, only 17.33 ref matches

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076588232#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1546473600/1546646400

Pretty certain this went for 6 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal.

#10

Bulk for Bubbling Sinner’s Shade

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080008924#!/compare/1545955200/1546041600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337583821#!/compare/1545955200/1546128000

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/RgyTjzT.png

https://backpack.tf/item/1829018718 - ~7.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3343511287 - ~7.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4096560450 - ~7.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7131843762 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/831529131 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2421722896 - 10 keys

Sales at:

6.5

7.5

8

3 sellers at ~7.5, excluding 8.

Even though most of the sales are untraceable, it is clear that 6.5 is a common trading point, with just 3 recorded being bought at that price in the last 30 days on bot.tf, and 6 in the last 90 days. Keeping 6.5.

Going with 6.5-7.5.