- Forums
-
Pricing
- Community Pricing
- Pricegrid
- Spreadsheet
- Browse Suggestions
- Latest Changes
- Unusual Pricelist
- Browse by Item
- Browse by Effect
- Steam Community Market
- Market Pricelist
-
Trading
- Classifieds
- Classified Listings
- Utilities
- Calculator
- Premium Search
- Statistics
Update.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074924284#!/compare/1546128000/1546214400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084577066#!/compare/1546214400/1546387200
Sold for a Molten Mallard Dread Hiding Hood (58 keys) + a Strange The Ooze Commando Elite (42 keys) + a Holy Grail Taunt: The Jumping Jack (9 keys)
58 + 42 + 9 = 109
Mini for taunt: https://marketplace.tf/items/30845;5;u3003 - 17.89/1.75 = ~10
Classies: https://i.imgur.com/4106NAv.png - fuck it, taking 8-10 (9)
Mini for Hood: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c3b1ddfcf6c7575093f2201
Mini for Commando: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c3b1caf44325a0d82345d19
Added mb to ask him about B/O, once he gets online. Atm going with 110 and keeping eye on the 80 seller.
yeahno. look at his resale. This is 100% certainly an outlier and this should not be updated with these data points.
Resale?
he resold it
Oh, ofc the Darkblaze? What about it, its just tons of overpay for a Old Halloween, which caps at B/O. I see no problems.
so you dont see why someone paying 109 for a hat and then paying that + a ton of adds on a hat with a BO of 95 is an issue or a slight indication that the sale may be high? :PP
I mean, there's even a seller at 80 to tell you this is an outlier if that db sale wasn't indication enough. This is really as clear as it gets :P
Well, the 80 seller thing, im waiting to see if mb had a B/O or not. And idk, 95 was a pure B/O, but why would anyone then overpay that much i suppose would be the argument. Well, aight. Ill wait and see if i can figure anything out with that B/O and then ill resuggest/close based on that.
You can close regardless :P
The argument here is that the same person halved his backpack value in two trades, the classic "both-sales-are-outliers" case. Im actually not even convinced that the darkblaze should be updated with that, but the issue Id have with that is not as severely as the one I have with this suggestion
But this would be the same as Darkblaze, if mb gives me a B/O of like 80, sale can be capped at that and should be fine. Thats what B/O's are for, arent they?
BO's arent meant to make outlier sales non-outliers. They're meant to bring sale values closest to their pure value as possible. The amount paid is actually relevant and can indicate whether or not a sale is logically conveying a common trading point. Sales far over a BO can mean multiple things: it can be an indication that the hats offered were overpriced, or it could have been convenience overpay (in the latter case, buyers on the hats offered often accumulate to a value close to the BO, meaning the alternative could have been to sell everything to buyers and simply pay the pure BO). It can also mean that we're dealing with a novice trader or one that otherwise makes very poor trade decisions. This last situation commonly happens with new hats and/or hats without buy orders, but is also really easy to spot if you see that same trader resell their hats far lower than they bought (and dumping in bulk where it'd amount for way less than he paid falls within that category).
Couple of examples where using the BO wouldnt lead to accurate values:
A recent example (which I think had your sale) was a hat where a sale was so far over the BO, that even at generic buyers, the sale would be higher than the buyout. The sale there was deemed an evident outlier.
Same goes for when you have sales at 68, 70, 72 and 500 (extreme example). 500 is clearly the outlier, and still is even if it had a BO of 80 and should therefore be capped at that, even though 80 is relatively close to the other sales. BO's shouldn't function to artificially bring sales closer together :P
This case falls in the last mentioned category; if we're going by BOs to attain a pure value we may as well also look at the barnstormer: with the BO there in mind and the adds that were given with it; even if we are given a BO of 80 on this sale, it means he paid 80 "pure" to then use it as ~35 "pure" in their next trade, thus basicly deleting half his currency in two trades
Ah yes, Chiroptera Venenata Bone Dome. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense, especially the overpriced hats part. But also, in this case there is only 1 sale, which can possibly be capped, there arent multiple sales to show an capped outlier like the 500 extreme example, so does in this case the 80 seller for the Soviet enhance the proof of this sale being an outlier enough? What i mean is, the fact that he deleted half of his currency in two trades alone wouldnt necessarily say for sure that this sale was an outlier, if there wasnt a seller at 80 and no other sales (which there arent no other sales, but i think you get what i mean, when i also add that in)?
Edit: Also, wouldnt convenience overpay enhance the fact that the sale after capped at B/O will be correct? Since in that case you could assume the overpay was large enough so that the seller can get his pure B/O cause the buyer didnt have pure? Or is that what you meant, cause as you said, in the case of the Bone Dome, even if id have sold to buyers, id have gotten more pure, than my B/O?
Even without the current 80 seller I would not have let this pass. There isnt just one sale, there are two. Just because you're using that there does not mean its not a data point, nor that it can't mean anything here :P Thats why Im not a fan of the db barn update based on that sale, though I figure realisticly, that sale is actually not that far off 95.
The other cases dont apply to this specific case but were meant to further expand on what BO caps are meant for and situations where sales can still be outliers even when at a BO cap they seem fine.
The situation I sketched when I mentioned convenience overpay is not a common one; I happened to have made a trade of that nature recently, where someone offered me hats and also indicated he was willing to sell to buyers to just pay me the pure BO. That's already the most extreme case of convenience overpay I see suited for updating, and the bone dome surpassed even that.
TL/DR for everything said so far:
- this is a classic "pay outlier amount and instantly dump for like half he paid" case and because of that this sale should not be used
- 80 seller supports the sale is an outlier.
Thats really all there's to it. This should be closed.
Yeah, it does need to be closed, but i just learned as much as i could from this before i did lol. Ty for the thorough explanation!