bot.tf

No KS: https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=663&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0 | https://prnt.sc/m8wxgh

Normal KS: https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=663&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=1

Spec KS: https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=663&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=2

Sales in past 14 days:

Bought

-Nil-

Sold

-Nil- (2 @ 11.95 keys in the past month)

(Spec KS: 2 sales >14 keys, ignoring)

Current classifieds buyers:

4 @ 11.10 keys

13 @ 11.00 keys

Cheapest seller @ 14.20 keys (Normal KS)

keys at 43 ref: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key/Tradable/Craftable

SCM

No KS: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Festive%20Medi%20Gun

Normal KS: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Killstreak%20Festive%20Medi%20Gun

Spec KS: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Specialized%20Killstreak%20Festive%20Medi%20Gun

Sales / key price in past 14 days (in SGD):

No KS

Jan 6 - 31.91 / 3.14 = 10.15 (outlier)

Jan 7 - 33.33 / 3.12 = 10.70 (outlier)

Jan 12 - 35.10 / 3.23 = 10.85

Jan 13 - 35.23 / 3.21 = 11.00

Jan 15 - 38.83 / 3.18 = 12.20

Normal KS

Jan 10 - 31.24 / 3.24 = 9.65 (outlier)

Jan 17 - 43.46 / 3.21 = 13.55 (high)

Spec KS 2 high sales >14 keys, ignoring.

Cheapest seller @ 13.7 keys.

marketplace.tf

No KS: https://marketplace.tf/items/663;11

Normal KS: https://marketplace.tf/items/663;11;kt-1

Spec KS: https://marketplace.tf/items/663;11;kt-2

Sales / key price in past 14 days (in USD):

No KS

Jan 12 - 21.86 / 1.75 = 12.50

Jan 13 - 19.99 / 1.77 = 11.30

Jan 17 - 21.86 / 1.75 = 12.50

Normal & Spec KS no sales.

Cheapest seller @ $25.99 / 14.85 keys (no KS)

Highest buyer @ $16.15 / 9.25 keys (no KS)

-------

Sales (by price)

10.15, 10.70, 10.85, 11.00, 11.30, 12.20, 12.50, 12.50

Sales (by time)

10.15, 10.70, 10.85, 12.50, 11.00, 11.30, 12.20, 12.50

Looking at it overall, since we don't have pure sales to base on, SCM & mp.tf sales will be what the price should be based off. The classified buyers will raise the low end to a 11.10 minimum, but even then none are being bought. Due to this, all 11.00 and under sales will be ignored. At the same time, the 12.50 marketplace sales will also be ignored due to sales there usually being higher, and being conservative.

The range chosen is 11.30 - 12.20. This way, the newer sales are also prioritised.