Sale 1:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 15 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935#!/compare/1542499200/1542585600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1542499200/1542585600

https://backpack.tf/item/523320111

X = 15

Sale 2:

Sold for 15 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1545523200/1545609600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241082898#!/compare/1545436800/1545609600

https://backpack.tf/item/1083271922

X = 15

Sale 3:

Sold with 7 keys for Strange Pro. KS Festive Sniper Rifle (~21)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241082898#!/compare/1545609600/1545696000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310972287#!/compare/1545609600/1545696000

https://backpack.tf/item/1083271922

X = 14

Sale 4:

Sold for 14 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137642054#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

https://backpack.tf/item/823321023

X = 14

Sale 5:

Bulk for Harvest Moon Sola Topi

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310972287#!/compare/1545696000/1545782400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1545696000/1545782400

https://backpack.tf/item/1083271922

Sale 6:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1545696000/1545782400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1545696000/1545782400

https://backpack.tf/item/1083271922

Sale 7:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198242685644#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/item/1083271922

Sale 8:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182810469#!/compare/1546214400/1546560000

https://backpack.tf/item/1083271922

Sale 9:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182810469#!/compare/1547164800/1547337600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1547164800/1547251200

https://backpack.tf/item/1083271922

Sale 10:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198262132503#!/compare/1546214400/1546300800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013517496#!/compare/1546214400/1546300800

https://backpack.tf/item/823321023

Sale 11:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1547510400/1547596800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121991829#!/compare/1547510400/1547596800

https://backpack.tf/item/823321023

Sale 12:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121991829#!/compare/1547596800/1547683200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1547596800/1547683200

https://backpack.tf/item/823321023

Sale 13:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208162248#!/compare/1546128000/1546214400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327784875#!/compare/1546128000/1546473600

https://backpack.tf/item/612895632

Sale 14:

Sold for Miami Nights Crocleather Slouch

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126693824#!/compare/1546214400/1546300800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198262132503#!/compare/1546214400/1546300800

https://backpack.tf/item/823321023

Can be used on the Crocleather.

Sale 15:

Sold with 25 keys for Purple Confetti Hong Kong Cone

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013517496#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137642054#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

https://backpack.tf/item/823321023

Using on the HKC.

Sale 16:

Partially untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1546214400/1546300800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079732932#!/compare/1546300800/1546387200

We can see 14 keys and some ref involved on the buyer’s end. I doubt it sold for only 14 keys though. I’d say some metal was turned into a key and used, or the metal obtained from the strange cosmetic was used or something.

Marketplace Sales:

Sold for $25.40 & $21.21

https://marketplace.tf/items/600;5;u29

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-03 - $25.4 / $1.77 = 14.35 keys

$21.21 would’ve gone to a buy order, excluding that one.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/HqiRuc8.png

https://backpack.tf/item/823321023 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/1030011068 - 15 keys

Sales at:

14 (3x)

15 (2x)

Not gonna include 14. The amount of buyers outweight the sales at 14, and only one of them really went to an actual quickbuyer, the other two were overpay for a sniper with an uncertain value, and a marketplace sale which is never good to use in a situation like this.

Going with 15 flat.