Using last month.

The Sale:

Sold for 4 keys + 25 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1548892800/1548979200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220612564#!/compare/1548979200/1549065600

https://backpack.tf/item/3867050261

X = 4.5

Marketplace Sales:

Sold for $9.94 & $9.95

https://marketplace.tf/items/30609;5;u3009

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-15 - $9.94 / $1.75 = 5.68 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-26 - $9.95 / $1.75 = 5.69 keys

X = 5.5 (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/3841354849 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/5082817477 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/5486041503 - scrap/marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7100684651 - transferred between bots

https://backpack.tf/item/3882936544 - transferred between bots

https://backpack.tf/item/6473155078 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1547164800/1547251200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198282076376#!/compare/1546992000/1547337600

probably missing a person in the history.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/Iu2lfis.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3879857924 - ~4.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3598014323 - ~4.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4696243498 - ~4.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3882936544 - ~4.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6770078699 - ~5.8 keys

Sales at:

4.5

5.5 (2x)

Both 5.5 sales are countered by the mass amount of sellers at ~4.9 keys. That, and they’re marketplace sales which are iffy to begin with anyways. Excluding 5.5.

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30609&q=5&ef=Silver+Cyclone&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0

https://i.imgur.com/SDT0KWT.png - bot.tf shows no sales within the last 3 months, only other purchases at ~4.5, which’ll support this price.

Going with 4.5 flat.