Using last two months.

Sale 1:

Sold for 4 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372178564#!/compare/1548892800/1548979200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198300186275#!/compare/1548633600/1548979200

https://backpack.tf/item/6381341562

X = 4.5

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198300186275#!/compare/1548979200/1549670400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1548892800/1548979200

https://backpack.tf/item/6381341562

https://i.imgur.com/cgIdqzo.png - bot.tf confirms.

The missing metal in the seller’s compare would’ve gone towards the ToD ticket.

X = 4.5

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + 18 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024#!/compare/1546905600/1546992000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1546905600/1546992000

https://backpack.tf/item/5492396055

https://i.imgur.com/cgIdqzo.png - bot.tf confirms.

X = 4.5

Sale 4:

Sold for 4 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261984929#!/compare/1547683200/1547856000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1547683200/1547856000

https://backpack.tf/item/7310608396

Note: the seller here is the buyer of untraceable sale #1, which had a pretty suspicious account as stated in that section. Supporting this, the buyer didn’t care for the ref that the buyers are offering, which is common for scammer alts looking to dump stuff. Even if this sale weren’t countered by buyers, I wouldn’t even use it.

X = 4

Marketplace Sales:

Sold for $5.56, $8.99, & $10

https://marketplace.tf/items/30763;5;u3009

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-28 - $8.99 / $1.79 = 5.02 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-29 - $10 / $1.79 = 5.59 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-09 - $5.56 / $1.75 = 3.18 keys

X = 5.5

X = 5

X = 3

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7310608396 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6419091556 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/5492396055 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/4952902432 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/4952902432 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/6419091556 (#6)

https://backpack.tf/item/6611018470 - scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/5314887148 - not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/6466583546 - scrap/mannco

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328256922#!/compare/1547164800/1549756800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261984929#!/compare/1547683200/1547856000

looks as if the “seller” was scammed, the “buyer” does looks pretty sus

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048529277#!/compare/1548547200/1548633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1548547200/1548633600

https://i.imgur.com/kFWanhG.png - labelled as a 4 key + 24 ref purchase on bot.tf

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335353337#!/compare/1546646400/1547078400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024#!/compare/1546992000/1547078400

#4

Probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067823911#!/compare/1545609600/1545696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024152496#!/compare/1544400000/1545696000

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024152496#!/compare/1545696000/1545782400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1545696000/1545782400

#6

Sold with some metal for Mega Strike Balloonibouncer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327492856#!/compare/1546214400/1546300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048529277#!/compare/1546214400/1546300800

This’ll either end up in the range or end up being ruled out as an outlier, depending on whether or not the Mega Strike Balloonibouncer goes higher than the 2-month-unsold at 5 keys. Excluding as this sale isn’t important here.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/DR2OCUW.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5314887148 - ~4.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5389823465 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4952814052 - ~5.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6419091556 - ~5.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4991541642 - ~7.2 keys

Sales at:

3

4

4.5 (3x)

5

5.5

Excluding 5.5 due to the seller at 5 being 2 months old.

Excluding 4 and lower due to buyers at ~4.4 keys.

Only keeping 5 for the reason that taking 4.5 keys flat would end up matching quickbuyers.

Going with 4.5-5.