Sale 1:

Sold for 3 keys + 0.5 keys in painted hats

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145329916#!/compare/1549584000/1549670400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415180580#!/compare/1549584000/1549670400

https://backpack.tf/item/4255294837

X = 3.5

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 17 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269193530#!/compare/1546387200/1547510400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198383491727#!/compare/1547424000/1547510400

https://backpack.tf/item/4614343999

X = 3.5

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 15 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354095813#!/compare/1549843200/1549929600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1549843200/1549929600

https://backpack.tf/item/4255294837

X = 3.5

Marketplace Sales:

Sold for $4, $7.79 (2x), $7.91, & $7.50 (2x)

https://marketplace.tf/items/30673;5;u3009

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-27 - $4 / $1.75 = 2.29 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-30 - $7.79 / $1.8 = 4.33 keys (2x)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-02 - $7.91 / $1.81 = 4.37 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-04 - $7.50 / $1.8 = 4.17 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-05 - $7.50 / $1.82 = 4.12 keys

X = 4.5 (3x)

X = 4 (2x)

X = 2.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7463953629 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6899852101 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/4369340049 (#4 & #5)

https://backpack.tf/item/4271740041 (#6)

https://backpack.tf/item/4258358015 (#7)

https://backpack.tf/item/4255294837 (#8 & #9)

https://backpack.tf/item/7385298219 - marketplace/gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/4951622880 - marketplace/gambled

#1

Untraceable, only some keys/metal match. More metal would’ve been involved, surely.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964499284#!/compare/1547337600/1547424000 (nsfw)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198440222692#!/compare/1547337600/1547424000

#2

Sold for Yeti Punch Unusualifier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198440222692#!/compare/1547337600/1547424000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143197549#!/compare/1545091200/1547424000

Wouldn’t affect the range.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044335614#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151556155#!/compare/1547510400/1549152000

#4

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372615377#!/compare/1547337600/1547510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088694175#!/compare/1547510400/1548201600

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088694175#!/compare/1548633600/1549411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1548547200/1548633600

https://i.imgur.com/6VdcbjS.png - labelled as a 3 key + 12 ref purchase on bot.tf

#6

Bulk for Eldritch Flame Prehistoric Pullover

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301763622#!/compare/1548547200/1549238400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1548460800/1548547200

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177615870#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113899098#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

#8

Untraceable, only 2 keys and some metal match.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1549152000/1549238400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145329916#!/compare/1549152000/1549238400

#9

Bulk for Smoking Herald’s Helm

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415180580#!/compare/1549843200/1549929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354095813#!/compare/1549843200/1549929600

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/W4J2OkX.png

https://backpack.tf/item/4258358015 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4271740041 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6481470087 - ~4.1 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4369340049 - ~4.1 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4614343999 - ~4.2 keys

Sales At:

2.5

3.5 (3x)

4 (2x)

4.5 (3x)

2.5 is low, and would’ve gone to a buy-order. Excluding 2.5.

4.5 is higher than the mass amount of sellers at 4. Excluding 4.5.

Keeping 3.5 as sales at that price are far too common to be excluded. They occupy all traceable non-marketplace sales.

Going with 3.5-4.