Using last 3 months, due to the lack of sales.

The Sale:

Sold for 9 keys + 15 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827261786#!/compare/1542844800/1542931200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1542844800/1542931200

https://backpack.tf/item/7145452804

X = 9.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6296204323 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7055591581 (#2 & #3)

https://backpack.tf/item/2728847263 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/782855498 - not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/7322886254 - not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/4438146072 - scammers

https://backpack.tf/item/2014316452 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7087035414 - bots

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1545868800/1545955200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225578600#!/compare/1546041600/1549670400

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311725787#!/compare/1543449600/1543708800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198431725617#!/compare/1543622400/1543708800

https://i.imgur.com/TZBg2Dn.png - was 11 keys according to bot.tf, though I don’t think the next in the history was the actual buyer. it doesn’t even appear in their backpack, not even on the date they get rid of it.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041443100#!/compare/1543017600/1543881600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311725787#!/compare/1542931200/1543017600

https://i.imgur.com/TZBg2Dn.png - Labelled as a 9 key + 6.11 ref purchase. We only see 7 keys and a scrap.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/d4oE3ry.png

https://backpack.tf/item/4842462686 - 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6475811732 - 15 keys

Sales at:

9.5

Barely anything to work with here. The sale at 9.5 went to a bot, but there are currently no buyers higher than 9 keys, and this sale is supported by the untraceable bot purchase at 9 keys + 6.11 ref, so I’ll keep it.

Additionally, the drop is further supported by the unsold at 11 keys. The seller auto-relists their listings, which removes how long they’ve been listed for. However, they have owned the item for more than 3 months, and I have no doubt that they would’ve been competing with the other bot that had theirs listed for 11, the that sold and is untraceable, which was obtained almost 3 months ago.

Going with 9.5 keys flat for now.