A few recent sales on this strange fat man's cap:

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029371596#!/compare/1542499200/1545177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043389320#!/compare/1542412800/1542585600

Sold for Spooky Night Laughing Taunt = Excluding due to sales being too high or too low on the taunt when sellers are @ 25 keys and buyorders @ 18 and sale itself is going outdated tomorrow.

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029371596#!/compare/1547683200/1547769600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143695158#!/compare/1547683200/1547769600

Sold for Smoking Warhood + 2 keys = Excluding as only 1 recent sale for it was 15 keys and all other sales were qsed/unknown/bulk/sus and seems low

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1544659200/1544745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238166694#!/compare/1544659200/1544745600

Sold for 30 keys pure

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238166694#!/compare/1546905600/1546992000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074924284#!/compare/1546905600/1546992000

Sold with Holy Grail Taunt: Second Rate Sorcery + ~2 keys for KAW Winter Woodsman(indate: 32.5)

Mini for Taunt:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30816;5;u3003

$14.98/1.81 = 8.27 = 8 keys

32.5 - 2 - 8 = 22.5 = 23 keys

Taking 23-30 keys