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Using last month.
Sale 1:
Sold for 8 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287152881#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200
https://backpack.tf/item/3852509629
X = 8
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/1115;5;u3009
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-28 - $22.22 / $1.78 = 12.48 keys
X = 12
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/3206006651 (#1)
https://backpack.tf/item/6124963673 - scrap
#1
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331219999#!/compare/1548547200/1550793600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075578532#!/compare/1539561600/1550448000
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/bAEkQ5a.png
https://backpack.tf/item/2858557135 - ~8.7 keys
Sales at:
8
12
12 is way too high given the current seller (worth noting that whattie bot was selling one for around the same price before getting perma’d), which has been unsold for several months. Additionally, the sale at 12 was based off a marketplace sale (which isn’t a good sign for suggestions like this), and there is currently a seller for around $4 cheaper on marketplace currently. Excluding 12.
Going with 8 flat.
The one marketplace seller you allude to has sold. That should be used for sure. The question is now that we have that sale, is 12 still an outlier? Look at classifieds and reassess and lemme know what you think
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1551830400/1551916800
https://backpack.tf/item/2858557135
This one sold after being unsold for several months at ~8.7 keys.
That marketplace sale is gonna be around 10 keys. I personally don't think marketplace sales should be used in situations like this as they tend to be pretty high most of the time, and given that the $22.22 sale is higher than 2 of the current marketplace sellers (fair enough, it's only a couple cents off), i feel including 12 would be pushing it.
I haven't checked other sales but if these were the only sales we had to work with, what range would you suggest? I was thinking 8-10.
Sounds good