Using last ~30 days.

Sale 1:

Sold for 6 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313704489#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130480412#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200

https://backpack.tf/item/6516454708

X = 6

Sale 2:

Sold for 4 keys + 24 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211566865#!/compare/1548633600/1548720000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269636307#!/compare/1548633600/1548720000

https://backpack.tf/item/6461967253

X = 4.5

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + ~8 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130480412#!/compare/1549843200/1550188800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1550102400/1550188800

https://backpack.tf/item/6516454708

X = 4

Marketplace:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30920;5;u3009 (excluding the $6.02 one as it’s gonna be below buyers)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-31 - $9.11 / $1.8 = 5.06 keys

X = 5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7040216079 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6560101549 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6556059309 (#3-5, the rest are gambled and not worth looking at)

https://backpack.tf/item/6516454708 (#6 & #7, gambled after those)

https://backpack.tf/item/6492238188 (#8-10)

https://backpack.tf/item/6461967253 (#11)

https://backpack.tf/item/7432162590 (#12-17, rest are gambled/scm)

https://backpack.tf/item/6744768638 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6560399501 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6465017990 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7139105864 - not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/6475857513 - scrap

#1

Untraceable, probably missing a person in the history

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102384645#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113899098#!/compare/1549584000/1549670400

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1548374400/1548460800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198810129648#!/compare/1548374400/1548460800

https://i.imgur.com/DjnIMp3.png - labelled as 6 keys

Was probably one of the two lots of 6 keys you see on the seller’s end, with no matching histories due to keys being bought on marketplace on the day of the purchase without the buyer’s backpack being scanned.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962889170#!/compare/1548892800/1548979200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1548892800/1548979200

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1549497600/1549584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064065041#!/compare/1549065600/1549497600

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838870134#!/compare/1550534400/1550707200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1550620800/1550707200

#6

Sold for Spectral Fast Learner + 1 key

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304088392#!/compare/1549843200/1549929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313704489#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200

Not gonna bother with spelled item sales, we have better sales to work with.

#7

Gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1550620800/1550707200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1550620800/1550707200

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024925599#!/compare/1549497600/1549584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011507712#!/compare/1548979200/1549497600 (probably not the buyer)

I don’t doubt that it sold for 5 keys, though it wouldn’t affect the range anyways.

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011507712#!/compare/1549497600/1549584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073522694#!/compare/1549497600/1549584000

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073522694#!/compare/1549497600/1549584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198367009985#!/compare/1549497600/1549584000

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035700550#!/compare/1548547200/1548720000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211566865#!/compare/1548633600/1548720000

#12

Sold for Terror-Watt Buckaroo’s Hat?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296741378#!/compare/1547942400/1548633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094832204#!/compare/1548547200/1548633600

I feel like items were involved with the bunnyhopper for the Buckaroo’s Hat. If so, it would be better to update it with this sale. If not, it would be too high.

#13

Sold for Screaming Tiger Proletariat Posedown

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094832204#!/compare/1548547200/1548633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198816039340#!/compare/1548547200/1548633600

Better to use on the Posedown if necessary. Would either fit in the range or be too high if used here.

#14

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198816039340#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065908363#!/compare/1548720000/1549152000

Probably missing a person in the history

#15

Bulk for Logo Scout Shako

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065908363#!/compare/1548720000/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167304451#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

#16

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167304451#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://i.imgur.com/DjnIMp3.png - labelled as 4 keys + 8 ref

#17

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1549411200/1549497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039558598#!/compare/1549411200/1549497600

https://i.imgur.com/DjnIMp3.png - labelled as 5 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/XFkuGGv.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6556059309 - ~5.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7083793950 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7040216079 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6502036374 - 6 keys

Sales at:

4

4.5

5

6

The purchase at 4 is supported by the bot.tf purchase at ~4 keys, albeit untraceable. Additionally, the buyer of the ~4 key sale bought several, all of which are untraceable, but I have no doubt that the purchases would’ve been at around 4 keys also. Keeping 4 in the range.

Seeing as 4 is being kept in the range, we probably shouldn’t exclude 6 from the range due to the seller at ~5.5. Keeping 6.

Going with 4-6.