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Sale 1:
Sold for $485.23 on marketplace.tf on Feb 6th. That day keys were selling for 1.81 each, so 485.23/1.81=268 keys.
Caps at 260 due to seller b/o.
https://marketplace.tf/items/605;5;u69
No other valid recent sales occurred.
What happened to the 390 key sale??
according to foamy, outlier
Like I said before....
But then again, I'd still ask the seller for his bo. Don't know if it'll still be outlier.
Also, plus points for asking this seller for his bo.
waiting on his response, most likely wasn't listed knowing diablo though.
Ah, I thought so. Yeah this seems fine then.
luca your suggestion is based on suppositions :
- diablo has it listed at 350 i can confirm
- the pencil was not listed at all for 2 months or please proove it.
also the 400 keys sale is ignored, i dont understand why
looks like a quicksale. its sold for solid 400 just before and i declined 300 keys just after i got + someone already reserved it for more.
It took a solid 2 months to sell
proove it please ! beeing on bot for 2 months does not make it listed for 2 months and not nessesary the same price. it can be on bot and not listed or the price can be changed. i myself change prices almost everydays.
Please refer to the previous suggestion, where Foamy already mentioned why the sale is high.
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c59a1da44325a66fa0e42c1
The tl;dr is that it's better to assume the hat was listed instead of not during its time on MPTF, and retro then resold it for less.
yeah but still not agreeing since the hat was not listed for 2 months at this price. this is just a supposition.
and its not beeing sold the half as the headptitter would need to get a new price , not the inverse. especially cause this headplitter was sold almost instantly for 350 keys and priced from that while i had offer of 1200$ before and during this suggestion from an other buyer : https://imgur.com/a/E59rbi9
i would say its better not using a "wrong" price to make an other "wrong suggestion", we need an other sale and the hat is already reserved for 550$.
retro paid more than the double price for the headptiller which is more realistic than the 350 insta sale and have it priced at 350 cause they didnt want to wait for a other sale to make a solid suggestion. same thing gonna happen with the pencil now but even worst cause its now only based on an other failed suggest. it does'nt change anything to me as the guy reserved the pencil but its not fair for the owners / buyers and just not a good guide for the community.
Yeah and how do you suppose I price the headsplitter if I leave this outdated? Regardless, you also need proof that he was changing prices constantly or didn't have it listed for that long if you are going to make that claim. Also, your collecting offer for 1200$ fell through, so it is 100% invalid as well as irrelevant. Again, you CANNOT use offers as proofs for prices, you need SALES.
For the splitter - the bonzo sns is going to be an issue there as well. Similar to this situation; the same trader bought the sns as an outlier purchase and traded it back for the splitter. only difference between that and the AF pencil is that the pencil was bought from someone else.
It may not be a bad idea to leave the splitter actually, seeing how the splitter was in-date when that new sale on it happened. It would not surprise me if that splitter sale is simply yet another outlier :P Its not an uncommon practice for that particular trader as I've seen cases like this in the past too.
I generally dont get why it is said that its "logical" for that splitter to suddenly double in value. Look at past suggestions on that. The value of that has actually remained relatively stable around 400 for a long time. even 8 months ago all BO's on it were 400:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b37035b44325a7c6e68bf8c
I don't see why the splitter suggestion was wrong. If anything we kept that conservative (for a reason similar to the one why we wouldn't allow that bonzo sns right now). Don't forget the other sale for that was for a harvest bomber (of which it was also said to be "logically 500", while that was updated to 260 (and ikff paid even less for it iirc).
The general issue here seems to be that assumptions are made that these rare hats "should be worth 1000000000000000 keys" even though sales say otherwise. Even the (retracted) 1200$ offer listed above seems to be inspired by the odd assumption that that harvest bomber should logically be 500.
because you based on the headsptitter at 350 but even if it was the price this is outdated and less than the half of what people offered and bought it for the past 3 months. so that's a totaly wrong price for it since even this qs price its not valid anymore. so why using it for for the pencil? again the pencil got reserved for 550$ just after i got it. its just bad for the buyers cause they have it priced at what traders instantly buy them for profit and they wont be able to get it priced fairly while they bought for keeps like the headsptitter. just hope that it ll be fairly priced for the owners, not like with headsplitter. buying hats for double failed prices without getting them priced properly is not encouraging..
Never said using it for the pencil was the way to go. Just saying it's an indication that his purchase is an outlier (as is his splitter purchase). The splitter price was not wrong and I've thoroughly explained why in my previous comment. Ive looked at sales on the splitter and sales here, and I concluded that him paying a million keys for the pusher and then dumping it with items he also paid a million keys for on a splitter that has not sold that high EVER before (as I said it has been stable for two years around 400; 350 is in NO way an illogical or unreasonable price). The fact that this is not the first time this particular trader has had such sales is a very strong indicator that his splitter purchase and his other purchases here are outliers.
Him adding cash only supports my stance further, by the way.
Im doing my best to get the correct info whenever I can. You can't expect me to just guess there was cash involved, and it was never mentioned before, so it's kind of weird that you're accusing me of not getting things right out of nowhere on something unrelated to the situation.
never said that. i said before to suggest they could at least make more research i mean im not a suggester and found more info quickly. i see no reason to not use the 400 keys sale on the pencil. and no reason to not ask the confirmation from the seller that the 260 keys sale was a quicksale. i meant search the infos by yourself cause each time i tel something i feel like a liar like the headsptitter suggester who insulted me on my profile. ask the buyers / sellers and get the infos thats it if you dont belive screenshots ! im here to help not to scam this ll not change anything to me as the pencil is already reserved for 550$ .i woulnt bother if i wasnt sure of what im saying , i got the hat and the offers to tel i sold it in 2 days for 550$ basicly. as i said its just not fair for the buyer as it was not fair for the buyer of the headptiller (stay priced at old buy order price 350 while sold recently for 700+)
so why using the outdated headsplitter price to ignore the only sale that is clearly not a quicksale on the pencil. you can add the previous owner and ask him if it was a quicksell price he ll just say yes ? the 1200$ was an offer and was valid , just too long to collect and i was getting offers at more then sold for more anyway. the compare link used here is wrong info. its not showing the whole trade as cash was added on top i can proove it. everything is made randomly please get the right infos before. nothing prevent us to show the 400 keys sale here and get the confirmation that the pencil was quicksold for 260 keys.
you can't quicksell something you've been selling for 2 months. There is a massive fallacy in what you are saying, seeing as how it took 2 months for it to sell, despite you being persistent on calling it a quicksell, even though it's in the name "quicksell", that to be considered one, it has to sell QUICK. Therefore, we can determine that 260 is 100% the price that this misc is worth. Also again, you need SALES, not OFFERS that fall through to price an item. If you'd taken that 1200$ offer, it would've been 100% valid, HOWEVER you did NOT, making it simple speculation and meaningless.
i talk about sale.. you repeat the same things its sold for more than that 1200$ offer looks like.. read again i said it was not here for 2 months at this price you can ask the seller maybe ? and why ignore the other sale that is for sure not a quicksell
hello, it might be useless but buyer confirming now to pay 550$ in total for it (he reserved it with cash already) https://imgur.com/a/sc6E3LS
if not considering that can this get repriced just after the deal is done or need to wait 3 months again ?
Imgur link broken
i can clik it, it should work https://imgur.com/a/sc6E3LS
The buyer https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198229872056 endend paying today the 550$ paypal https://imgur.com/a/OxHBEJp , we counted the keys at mp.tf price (currently 1.77$) - 10% so ~1.59$ rounding 345 keys