Sale 1:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 21 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198185387026#!/compare/1548115200/1548201600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1548115200/1548201600

https://backpack.tf/item/3327114192

X = 21

Sale 2:

Sold for 21 keys + 10 ref (Buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136097697#!/compare/1549584000/1549756800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313538268#!/compare/1549584000/1549756800

https://backpack.tf/item/2645612745

https://i.imgur.com/qyLQyLW.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 21

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 20 keys + 5 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122096342#!/compare/1548460800/1548547200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1548460800/1548547200

https://backpack.tf/item/2645612745

https://i.imgur.com/qyLQyLW.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 20

Sale 4:

Sold for Aus Knife (~18) + 1 key

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297023624#!/compare/1547942400/1548028800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388520231#!/compare/1547942400/1548028800

https://backpack.tf/item/3327114192

X = 19

Sale 5:

Sold with 4 keys for Dead Presidents Hive Minder (10) + Neutron Star Cranial Carcharodon

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044394362#!/compare/1544745600/1544832000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198187108663#!/compare/1544745600/1544832000

https://backpack.tf/item/3200825679

The Cranial is at its best, 20 keys given current sellers, and at its worst, 15-16 keys given current buyers. This sale could range from 21-26, which fits in the range, and therefore, it isn’t worth looking into the cranial.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/575;5;u62

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-13 - $47.61 / $1.76 = 27.05 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-14 - $30.18 / $1.75 = 17.25 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-22 - $44.99 / $1.81 = 24.86 keys

https://i.imgur.com/Ixd4MyC.png - B/O of 25 on the ~25 key sale

X = 27

X = 25

X = 17

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7317028534 - Scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/6823349942 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/3327114192 (#2-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/3200825679 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/2645612745 (#6 & #7)

#1

Bulk for Duped Scorching Milkman

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103105711#!/compare/1543449600/1543536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061836787#!/compare/1543363200/1543449600

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388520231#!/compare/1548028800/1548115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415180580#!/compare/1548028800/1548115200

#3

Sold for Searing Plasma Tundra Top?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415180580#!/compare/1548115200/1548201600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134266699#!/compare/1548115200/1548201600

I’m certain more was added on the seller’s end, but we can’t see anything else involved here.

#4

Bulk for Frostbite Jefe

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134266699#!/compare/1548115200/1548201600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198185387026#!/compare/1548115200/1548201600

#5

Sold with items for Purple Confetti Patriot’s Peak

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198187108663#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215130228#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

Using on the peak.

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1549497600/1549584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136097697#!/compare/1549411200/1549584000

https://i.imgur.com/qyLQyLW.png - labelled as 25 keys

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313538268#!/compare/1550188800/1550275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216150085#!/compare/1549929600/1550275200

https://i.imgur.com/qyLQyLW.png - labelled as 24 keys

Sales at:

17

19

20

21 (2x)

25

27

No current sellers (the one listed already sold)

Sales at and below 21 are far too common to be excluded. Highest buyer is currently 21, so I’ll excluding anything under 21. https://i.imgur.com/aYbaGW0.png

Going with 21-27.