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Sale 50 keys;
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1551398400/1551484800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205415264#!/compare/1551312000/1551484800
https://imgur.com/a/NWhNY7V
https://marketplace.tf/items/1157;5;u3013
sale feb 6 $70 / 1.81 = 38.7
Rounding = 39 and sale @ 50 keys. using sales in the last month
buyers only at ~24 keys on classies and ~$40 on mp.tf
What reasoning are you using for excluding all sales 1+ month old?
Original rules state 2, and that's rarely used nowadays, I only see that on suggestions with ridiculous amounts of sales (some taunts, neb trans, etc)
well i'm guessing you weren't around a couple years ago. pricing on unusual taunts used shorter periods of time because they tend to be volitile and pricing changes more drastically in general. suggestions during high flux periods used uber short periods of time. i chose a month because outside of that I don't see anything relevant or that makes much difference. if a mod chimes in and says it needs longer, w/e. if you feel the need to counter then go nuts. idc either. if anyone has any sales that they wish to add i'm happy to re-suggest based on intelligent reasoning.
i don't have premium so I am unable to check every history of all of these taunts, but I will say that I have seen no other listings when I've looked aside from mine.
Marketplace has two sales in january that would make a good lowend
33+36 ya I saw. and that makes 50 look the outlier with more of a 33-39 range. but omitting a pure sale seemed silly. and i have no idea how quick any of them took to sell. so i went with what i saw and know.
cash = pure, or close enough to that when talking suggestions and determining outliers. marketplace sales are usually high outliers which is kind of odd here
little makes sense with taunts. but i'm not going to use cash sales only as some other suggestions have done in the past on taunts and ignore a pure trade.
No one said you had to ignore pure trades, just don't cherry-pick evidence. Make a new low-end
nah. 33-50 makes 0 sense to me. that's 1/3 off. at this level 11 keys made sense and 1 month window. 17 keys and 2 month window just made no sense. i'll wait for a mod to chime in
Halloween taunts are highly dependent on market supply - even more so than other high end items. They can sell well for high pure values if there's only one on the market. Sometimes that's an outlier sale as multiple can hit the market at once and all sell for much lower. Will have to see how this is over the next month. If the market looks like it does now, I don't think 50 is an outlier. But if 3 new ones pop up, there is no way they sell for 50
To address the above discussion:
The reasoning for limiting the time frame within which taunts are assessed to just the last month is mainly meant for a rapidly changing market with many taunts for sale (which is what we commonly see on low tier taunts at the moment). Especially back when taunts had gotten their huge influx of extra supply, the price that was accepted a month ago was usually already obsolete, as opposed to many other unusuals where the price would stay more stable in such a short time frame.
When I look at the market here, a case as such made does not really hold, since the market seems to be limited. There are currently none for sale, and we only have 6 sales in the past 3 months (which were only 6 sales the past 2 months when this was made). By that logic you'd now argue that only 50 should be used since that is now the only sale in the last month.
On marketplace:
~33 (Jan 16)
~36 (Jan 19)
~25 (Jan 20)
~39 (Feb 7)
Item sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1548460800/1548547200
28 keys (Jan 27)
And your sale at 50 keys (Mar 2)
So sales at 25, 28, 33, 36, 39 and 50. Only looking at last-month sales at the exact point you chose here is extremely convenient since it cuts off 4 significantly lower sales that happened shortly before (all within a 2 week timeframe). I'm personally not a strong advocate of even including 50 here, but the range as made here is too onesided for sure.