Sale 1:

Sold with a key + cheap cosmetic for Aussie Pro. KS Black Box (18)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048399031#!/compare/1545350400/1545436800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070652981#!/compare/1545350400/1545436800

https://backpack.tf/item/7309528410

X = 17

Sale 2:

Sold for 15 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198716139545#!/compare/1548806400/1548892800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006544512#!/compare/1548720000/1548806400

https://backpack.tf/item/7309528410

X = 15

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/137;5;u7

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-08 - $31.95 / $1.82 = 17.55 keys

$35.99 / $1.8 = ~19.93 keys (manic.tf doesn’t show current day’s key prices it seems)

X = 20

X = 18

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7583631406 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7309528410 (#2-4)

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186622870#!/compare/1551571200/1551744000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1551484800/1551571200

#2

Bulk for Omniscient Orb Brass Bucket

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026806885#!/compare/1545091200/1545177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048399031#!/compare/1545004800/1545177600

#3

Untraceable, only a couple keys and other things match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088372978#!/compare/1547683200/1547856000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202186637#!/compare/1547510400/1547856000

#4

Sold with a couple keys in items for Smoking Killer Exclusive

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202186637#!/compare/1547942400/1548201600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198716139545#!/compare/1547769600/1548201600

Waaaaaay too high, excluding.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/mqXZ60l.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzjZQuT.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7583631406 - 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7309528410 - 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7144366779 - 19 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/278575570 - 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5042574853 - 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5275334860 - 24 keys

Sales at:

15

17

18

20

20 is too high given the unsold at 19 and the cheaper sellers. Excluding 20.

15 may have gone to a quickbuyer, but currently, the highest quickbuyers are at ~12 keys, and the next lowest sale is higher than the seller at 16, so it should be reasonable to keep 15 in the range. Including 18 is a stretch, anyways. Keeping 15 would keep it a bit balanced.

Going with 15-18.