Sale 1:

Sold for 15 keys (ID’s match)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108094239#!/compare/1548547200/1548633600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296969563#!/compare/1548633600/1548806400 (no good compare available)

https://backpack.tf/item/7247646252

X = 15

Sale 2:

Sold for 14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042938501#!/compare/1549670400/1549756800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372127799#!/compare/1549584000/1549756800

https://backpack.tf/item/7247646252

X = 14

Sale 3:

Sold for 14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036445124#!/compare/1550966400/1551052800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128516906#!/compare/1550880000/1551571200

https://backpack.tf/item/5726026143

X = 14

Sale 4:

Sold for 13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1548460800/1548547200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108094239#!/compare/1548460800/1548547200

https://backpack.tf/item/7247646252

I’m certain ref was involved too, given one of the keys on the buyer’s end appearing to have sold for metal, and only some metal appearing in the buyer’s end, but given that there’s more than half a key of ref seen in that compare, it couldn’t have been more than half a key involved for the Toy Soldier.

X = 13

Sale 5:

Sold for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296969563#!/compare/1548633600/1548806400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275783474#!/compare/1548720000/1548806400

https://backpack.tf/item/7247646252

X = 12

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7247646252 (#1-3)

https://backpack.tf/item/5726026143 - All gambled (except Sale 5)

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198247640596#!/compare/1548374400/1548460800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1548374400/1548460800

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275783474#!/compare/1548806400/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042938501#!/compare/1548979200/1549065600

#3

Sold with 3 keys for Cauldron Bubbles Dead Cone

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372127799#!/compare/1550361600/1550448000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165484704#!/compare/1550275200/1550361600

Should be used on the cone if it isn’t too low there.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/v6sC7q4.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7002018491 - 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5726026143 - 15 keys

And another seller on marketplace for ~14.5 keys worth:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30316;5;u7

Sales at:

12

13

14 (2x)

15

The majority of these sales happened pretty quickly, I don’t think excluding any of them based off how quick they sold would be a good idea.

https://i.imgur.com/1YVwQiw.png - Buyers at 12, excluding 12.

Going with 13-15.