Sale 1:

Sold for Genuine Grandmaster (~12.5) + ~2.5 keys in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112785205#!/compare/1550534400/1550620800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198185299778#!/compare/1550361600/1550620800

https://backpack.tf/item/6782099158

X = 15

Sale 2:

Sold for 15 keys + less than half a key in metal/items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308772967#!/compare/1547164800/1547251200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150210219#!/compare/1547164800/1547251200

https://backpack.tf/item/7041901820

https://i.imgur.com/MPdN5s9.png - B/O of ~15.35

X = 15

Sale 3:

Quicksold for 14 keys + metal/items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198393588133#!/compare/1547337600/1547510400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394457682#!/compare/1547424000/1547510400

https://backpack.tf/item/7041901820

X = 14

Sale 4:

Sold for 14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101634165#!/compare/1550016000/1550966400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069208522#!/compare/1550534400/1550620800

https://backpack.tf/item/6738951143

X = 14

Sale 5:

Sold for 14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141832563#!/compare/1549497600/1549584000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092084740#!/compare/1549411200/1549584000

https://backpack.tf/item/7041901820

X = 14

Sale 6:

Sold for 5 keys + some ref for Aussie Knife (~18)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170035993#!/compare/1547942400/1548028800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202212372#!/compare/1547942400/1548028800

https://backpack.tf/item/7041901820

X = 13

Sale 7:

Sold to a bot for 13 keys + 1 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202212372#!/compare/1547942400/1548028800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448207173#!/compare/1547942400/1548028800

https://backpack.tf/item/7041901820

X = 13

Sale 8:

Sold for 13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198811281791#!/compare/1549065600/1549411200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141832563#!/compare/1549152000/1549324800

https://backpack.tf/item/7041901820

X = 13

Sale 9:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + 20 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272179399#!/compare/1545696000/1545782400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308772967#!/compare/1545696000/1545782400

https://backpack.tf/item/7041901820

https://i.imgur.com/MPdN5s9.png

X = 12

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30977;5;u7

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-31 - $35 / $1.76 = 19.89 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-10 - $30.06 / $1.8 = 16.70 keys

X = 20

X = 17

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7225971461 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7117300014 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7041901820 (#3-11)

https://backpack.tf/item/6788845226 (#12)

https://backpack.tf/item/6782099158 (#13)

#1

Probably scammed or just dumped on tradeit or something

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055507992#!/compare/1550361600/1550448000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130184929#!/compare/1551744000/1551830400

The 2nd link most likely isn’t the buyer

#2

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083002740#!/compare/1548115200/1549670400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132741569#!/compare/1549584000/1549670400

#3

Bulk-ish for something

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157409376#!/compare/1545004800/1545609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119484903#!/compare/1545523200/1545609600

#4

Bulk for Miami Pithy

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119484903#!/compare/1545609600/1547078400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272179399#!/compare/1545609600/1545696000

#5

Bulk for Cloud 9 Antarctic Eyewear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150210219#!/compare/1547510400/1547596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198393588133#!/compare/1547337600/1547510400

#6

Bulk for Lantern Handle

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394457682#!/compare/1547424000/1547510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873310521#!/compare/1547424000/1547510400

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873310521#!/compare/1547424000/1547510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144962883#!/compare/1547424000/1547510400

Only 4 keys match

#8

Sold for 7 keys + Collector’s Pro. KS Reserve Shooter + 1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144962883#!/compare/1547510400/1547596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967981074#!/compare/1547596800/1547683200

Hard to get a good value on the Reserve shooter, as it has no traceable sales, and there are no recent reasonable sales on the SCM. Should come to around 14 or 15, supporting the drop, though.

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967981074#!/compare/1547856000/1547942400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170035993#!/compare/1547942400/1548028800

#10

Sold for 17 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448207173#!/compare/1548028800/1548115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198854353629#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000 (no good compare)

ID’s match, but this seems a little odd, and I’m not comfortable using this one.

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198854353629#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198811281791#!/compare/1548979200/1549065600

#12

Sold for 12 keys + 20 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961066474#!/compare/1551139200/1551484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308772967#!/compare/1551398400/1551484800

https://i.imgur.com/MPdN5s9.png

Didn’t bother counting all the metal/keys on the buyer’s end, as it isn’t gonna affect the range anyways.

#13

Sold with 2 keys for Kill-a-Watt Eyewear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198360762316#!/compare/1547683200/1547856000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198452186430#!/compare/1547596800/1547769600

Should be used to price the Kill-a-Watt Eyewear.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/LnoYegU.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6788845226 - ~15.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7117300014 - ~15.7 keys

Sales at:

12

13 (3x)

14 (3x)

15 (2x)

17

20

Sales at the common quicksell points are far too abundant to be excluded. Not excluding anything based on solely how quickly it sold.

The marketplace sales at 17 and 20 already look like outliers, and are also countered by sellers. Excluding 17 and 20.

https://i.imgur.com/arGPPTf.png - Buyer at 12+, excluding 12.

Going with 13-15.