Sale 1:

Sold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067861907#!/compare/1548115200/1548633600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124884415#!/compare/1548115200/1548201600

https://backpack.tf/item/1372407864

X = 10

Sale 2:

Sold for 9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068334298#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198276874494#!/compare/1549756800/1549929600

https://backpack.tf/item/1335058662

X = 9

Sale 3:

Sold for 8 keys + ~1 key in metal/items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198276874494#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137179430#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

https://backpack.tf/item/1335058662

X = 9

Sale 4:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119340076#!/compare/1549152000/1549238400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312134006#!/compare/1549152000/1549324800

https://backpack.tf/item/1335058662

X = 8

Sale 5:

Sold for 7 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137179430#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094475535#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

https://backpack.tf/item/1335058662

X = 7.5

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + some ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198436646008#!/compare/1547942400/1548460800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146168832#!/compare/1548288000/1548460800

https://backpack.tf/item/6476508256

X = 7

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/330;5;u29

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-21 - $21.35 / $1.66 = 12.86 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-22 - $14.1 / $1.74 = 8.10 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-25 - $15.71 / $1.8 = 8.73 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-28 - $15.71 / $1.79 = 8.78 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-29 - $21.36 / $1.79 = 11.93 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-05 - $14.11 / $1.82 = 7.75 keys

X = 13

X = 12

X = 9

X = 8.5

X = 8 (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6476508256 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/1372407864 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/1335058662 (#3-5)

https://backpack.tf/item/539322583 - nothing usable (only real sale is bulk for p fetti tundra that i'm using on that)

https://backpack.tf/item/1407321232 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146168832#!/compare/1550707200/1550966400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1550880000/1550966400

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029371596#!/compare/1547683200/1547769600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067861907#!/compare/1547510400/1547942400

#3

Sold for 7 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312134006#!/compare/1549756800/1550361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068334298#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200

I feel like more was involved. Excluding.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094475535#!/compare/1551052800/1551312000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165205268#!/compare/1551225600/1551312000

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165205268#!/compare/1551312000/1551398400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273675032#!/compare/1551312000/1551398400

Everything in that item’s history onwards appears to have been gambled.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/dIMNtCK.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6476508256 - 9 keys

Sales at:

7

7.5

8 (3x)

8.5

9 (3x)

10

12

13

12 and 13 are way too high given the current sellers and the cheaper sales. Excluding 12 and 13.

https://i.imgur.com/J6azNGS.png - Buyers at 7.5+, and the sales at 7 and 7.5 are not abundant. Excluding 7 and 7.5.

Going with 8-10.