Sale 1:

Sold for Purple Energy Commando Elite (23)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066586338#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285779457#!/compare/1546387200/1549238400

https://backpack.tf/item/1039366976

X = 23

Sale 2:

Sold for 19 keys (Buyer’s compare link)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1548288000/1548374400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322561060#!/compare/1548374400/1548460800

https://backpack.tf/item/1371680004

X = 19

Sale 3:

Sold for 18 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085931736#!/compare/1550275200/1550361600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061898098#!/compare/1550102400/1550361600

https://backpack.tf/item/1039366976

X = 18

Sale 4:

Sold for Magnetic Hat Protector Universal Translator (16) + ~2 keys in pure/items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326588812#!/compare/1546819200/1546905600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167580668#!/compare/1546905600/1546992000

https://backpack.tf/item/7435583107

X = 18

Sale 5:

Sold for ~17 keys in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061275415#!/compare/1547856000/1547942400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070688101#!/compare/1547856000/1547942400

https://backpack.tf/item/7435583107

X = 17

Sale 6:

Sold for 16 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132844160#!/compare/1548892800/1549065600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196410274#!/compare/1548892800/1549065600

https://backpack.tf/item/1371680004

X = 16

Sale 7:

Sold for 15 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322561060#!/compare/1548374400/1548460800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132844160#!/compare/1548115200/1548460800

https://backpack.tf/item/1371680004

X = 15

Sale 8:

Sold for 15 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273675032#!/compare/1548979200/1549065600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066586338#!/compare/1548979200/1549065600

https://backpack.tf/item/1039366976

X = 15

Sale 9:

Sold for 15 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1544659200/1545436800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198366893329#!/compare/1543795200/1545436800

https://backpack.tf/item/1371680004

X = 15

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/614;5;u29

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-01 - $34.06 / $1.76 = 19.35 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-21 - $35 / $1.75 = 20.00 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-01 - $28 / $1.81 = 15.47 keys

X = 20

X = 19

X = 15

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7435583107 (#1-3)

https://backpack.tf/item/5431714001 (#4 & #5)

https://backpack.tf/item/1371680004 (#6-8)

https://backpack.tf/item/1039366976 (#9 & #10)

https://backpack.tf/item/6960400648 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/1896301151 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/4026853661 - tradeit

#1

Sold for Purple Confetti Tundra

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167580668#!/compare/1547424000/1547510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061275415#!/compare/1547424000/1547510400

Using on the Tundra.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070688101 - private backpack

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1551744000/1551830400

https://i.imgur.com/x9JcMl3.png - labelled as 15 keys + 4.11 ref

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1551830400/1551916800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059158638#!/compare/1551744000/1552003200

https://i.imgur.com/x9JcMl3.png - Labelled as 18 keys + 4.11 ref

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127938353#!/compare/1548028800/1548115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351997202#!/compare/1548028800/1548115200

#5

Sold with 2 keys + cheap items for Insomnia Norsemann

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351997202#!/compare/1548115200/1548201600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066811391#!/compare/1548115200/1548288000

Can be used on the Norsemann.

#6

Bulk for Phantasm Pomade

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254285639#!/compare/1544572800/1544659200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1544572800/1544659200

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198366893329#!/compare/1545609600/1545696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1545523200/1545609600

Probably sold to julia’s bot for ~15 keys if I had to guess

#8

Sold for Steaming Headsplitter

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196410274#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273476920#!/compare/1548460800/1549152000

Can be used on the Headsplitter

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069109313#!/compare/1549065600/1550275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273675032#!/compare/1548979200/1549065600

#10

Dunno

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285779457#!/compare/1549929600/1550102400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085931736#!/compare/1549929600/1550016000

Pretty sure more stuff was involved.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/NOGTzxo.png

https://backpack.tf/item/1567489571 - 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/599421438 - 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/1908535695 - 20 keys

Sales at:

15 (4x)

16

17

18 (2x)

19 (2x)

20

23

23 is a large outlier, excluding.

20 is too high, given that it was a marketplace sale, and the two listings that are 5-6 months old. Excluding 20.

There are quite a few buyers at 15, but we have way too many sales to be excluded, including the untraceable bot.tf purchase at 15. It’s also worth noting that the buyer at 16 is rather fresh.

Going with 15-19.