God, this was a pain in my ass.

bot.tf stats:

https://i.imgur.com/U4X7lto.png

Past 90 days:

1x 4.00 keys

2x 3.25 keys

Rounding 3.25 keys to 3.5.

Marketplace.tf stats:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30876;5;u3008

Sales:

1x $9.00 --> 5 keys

1x $7.20 --> 4 keys

1x $6.00 --> 3.5 keys

1x $8.49 --> 4.5 keys

1x $6.00 --> 3.5 keys

1x $7.99 --> 4.5 keys

1x $7.99 --> 4.5 keys

Excluding 4.5 keys, current sellers are below 4 keys.

Sale #1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400558905#!/compare/1550361600/1550534400

Untracable.

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Sale #2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208188020#!/compare/1549497600/1551398400

Bulk?

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Sale #3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198876912806#!/compare/1551139200/1551225600

SCM.

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Sale #4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198876912806#!/compare/1551225600/1551484800

Sold for 3 keys and 8 ref.

3 keys

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Sale #5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093501381#!/compare/1551830400/1551916800

Unsure.

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Sale #6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800047872#!/compare/1546819200/1550275200

Unsure.

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Sale #7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045459628#!/compare/1550880000/1550966400

SCM Sale.

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Sale #8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319766518#!/compare/1548633600/1550707200

SCM Sale?

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Sale #9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799279644#!/compare/1547337600/1548979200

SCM Sale?

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Sale #10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799279644#!/compare/1540425600/1545523200

SCM Sale.

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Sale #11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198345447093#!/compare/1552003200/1552089600

Sold for like 2.8 keys worth of items.

3 keys

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Sale #12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198345447093#!/compare/1551744000/1551830400

Untracable.

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Sale #13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419097079#!/compare/1545955200/1546646400

Sold with 7.45 keys of sweets for a Stormy Storm Sky High Fly Guy (9.5 keys).

2 keys

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Sale #14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341743439#!/compare/1545436800/1550620800

Untracable.

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Sale #15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060493922#!/compare/1550707200/1550793600

Unsure.

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Sale #16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197983936632#!/compare/1548806400/1549584000

SCM Sale?

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Sale #17:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086076383#!/compare/1551744000/1551830400

Sold for 3 keys and 20 ref.

3.5 keys

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Sale #18:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303508349#!/compare/1549065600/1549238400

iunno

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Sale #19:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303508349#!/compare/1545436800/1545868800

SCM Sale.

Going with 3.5 - 4 keys, 4.5 keys seems too high due to the current sellers.