Sale 1:

Sold with Strange Spec. KS Ambassador (~1) for Aces High Punk’s Pomp (25)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198336001811#!/compare/1550534400/1550880000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198449307015#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

https://backpack.tf/item/7539487463

X = 24

Sale 2:

Sold for 23 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1550361600/1550448000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115238689#!/compare/1550016000/1550448000

https://backpack.tf/item/6843081774

https://i.imgur.com/Cj7WwKp.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 23

Sale 3:

Sold for 21 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1549584000/1549670400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/6561198182810469#!/compare/1549670400/1550188800

https://backpack.tf/item/6923226461

Was traded back after, but that’s untraceable.

X = 21

Sale 4:

Sold for 9 keys + Purple Confetti Mighty Mitre (Suggestion at 9) + ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198264117106#!/compare/1550880000/1550966400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198183877181#!/compare/1550880000/1550966400

https://backpack.tf/item/4401849149

X = 18

Sale 5:

Sold for 17 keys in ~3 days

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321019586#!/compare/1550966400/1551052800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841365001#!/compare/1550880000/1551052800

https://backpack.tf/item/7432616249

The hat appears to have been gambled after this sale.

X = 17

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 16 keys + 5 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114982786#!/compare/1548806400/1549152000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/item/7109908558

https://i.imgur.com/Cj7WwKp.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 16

Sale 7:

Sold for Clairvoyance Tank Top (13)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094783809#!/compare/1546819200/1547596800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198404574493#!/compare/1547424000/1547596800

https://backpack.tf/item/6884076416

X = 13

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30647;5;u95

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-21 - $43 / $1.66 = 25.90 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-01-12 - $39.99 / $1.75 = 22.85 keys

X = 26

X = 23

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/4237090251 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7539487463 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7432616249 (#4-7)

https://backpack.tf/item/6923226461 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/5302553435 - no

https://backpack.tf/item/7521266525 - marketplace

#1

Bulk for Phantasm Jr Commando Elite?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993919776#!/compare/1545955200/1546041600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258264645#!/compare/1545955200/1546041600

Commando goes to and forth between the two.

#2

Untraceable, probably bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258264645#!/compare/1545955200/1546041600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122604075#!/compare/1545955200/1546041600

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198449307015#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

https://i.imgur.com/Cj7WwKp.png - labelled as 16 keys + 5 ref

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198230334860#!/compare/1546646400/1546732800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316819529#!/compare/1546732800/1546819200

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316819529#!/compare/1546732800/1546819200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297911394#!/compare/1546732800/1546819200

#6

Sold for Logo Climbing Commander + 2 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297911394#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047941585#!/compare/1549756800/1549843200

Using on the commander.

#7

Bulk for Death at Dusk Company Man

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047941585#!/compare/1550707200/1550793600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321019586#!/compare/1550707200/1550793600

#8

Bulk-ish for keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211416633#!/compare/1546905600/1547510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1547078400/1547164800

Purple Confetti Mighty Mitre:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c8d002267807270fc1bc8bb

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/XmDqUT3.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6843081774 - 24 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6884076416 - 24 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7521266525 - 24 keys

Sales at:

13

16

17

18

21

23 (2x)

24

26

2 months unsold at 24, excluding 24 and 26.

13 is way too low, excluding.

Sales at 16 and 17 either went to quickbuyers, or quicksold, and they don’t make up for many of the sales here. Excluding 16 and 17.

Going with 18-23.