Sale 1:

Sold with ~1 key in items for Aces High Large Luchadore (Mini at 15 below)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093330769#!/compare/1551571200/1551657600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261268231#!/compare/1551571200/1551657600

https://backpack.tf/item/7093593644

X = 14

Sale 2:

Sold for Ancient Codex Universal Translator (12.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176747370#!/compare/1551744000/1551830400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152605492#!/compare/1551744000/1551830400

https://backpack.tf/item/7093593644

X = 13

Sale 3:

Sold with 1 key + less than half a key in items for Smoking Hottie’s Hoodie (12)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198868641396#!/compare/1551052800/1551139200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093330769#!/compare/1551052800/1551139200

https://backpack.tf/item/7093593644

X = 11

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7093593644 (#1-5)

#1

Sold with 5 keys for Terror-Watt Murderer’s Motif

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198816039340#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198868641396#!/compare/1550793600/1550880000

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261268231#!/compare/1551571200/1551657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177279603#!/compare/1551398400/1551657600

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177279603#!/compare/1551398400/1551657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176747370#!/compare/1551571200/1551657600

#4

Sold with ~2 keys in items for Disco Beat Down Voodoo JuJu + fabricators

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152605492#!/compare/1551916800/1552003200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198808612658#!/compare/1551571200/1552003200

Can be used on the JuJu.

#5

Sold for Orbiting Fire Crack Pot

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043104770#!/compare/1550620800/1550793600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198816039340#!/compare/1550707200/1550793600

Aces High Luchadore Mini:

https://marketplace.tf/items/380;5;u59

Excluding this year’s sales as there are sellers for much cheaper currently.

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-23 - $26 / $1.7 = 15.29 keys

X = 15

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/p8D8CVN.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7073936217 - 14 keys

Sales at:

11

13

14

4 month old seller at 14, excluding 14.

https://i.imgur.com/iCuTJLL.png - buyer at 11, excluding 11.

Going with 13 flat.