The Sale:

Sold for 9 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176908594#!/compare/1552953600/1553040000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838788284#!/compare/1552953600/1553040000

https://backpack.tf/item/3543422803

X = 9.5

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30187;5;u7

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-27 - $23.99 / $1.79 = 13.40 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-03-11 - $23.99 / $1.8 = 13.33 keys

$17 went to a buy order, excluding.

X = 13 (2x)

Sales at:

9.5

13 (2x)

No current sellers.

9.5 may look like an outlier, but it’s currently on tf2mart, and I doubt they’d be selling for more than 13 keys worth, meaning we’re gonna need a low-end here.

Going with 9.5-13.