Sale 1:

Sold for 14 keys + some metal in an auction

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056571743#!/compare/1546387200/1546646400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134266699#!/compare/1546473600/1546646400

https://backpack.tf/item/7419083441

X = 14

Sale 2:

Sold for 11 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107793922#!/compare/1549152000/1549238400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144819017#!/compare/1549065600/1549152000

https://backpack.tf/item/7427635935

X = 11

Sale 3:

Sold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054825186#!/compare/1546300800/1546560000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960788095#!/compare/1546387200/1546560000

https://backpack.tf/item/7436173869

X = 10

Sale 4:

Sold for 9 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065997776#!/compare/1548633600/1548720000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107793922#!/compare/1548633600/1548720000

https://backpack.tf/item/7427635935

X = 9.5

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 9 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1551484800/1551571200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1551484800/1551571200

https://backpack.tf/item/7489958894

X = 9.5

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 9 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144819017#!/compare/1552608000/1552694400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1552608000/1552694400

https://backpack.tf/item/7427635935

X = 9.5

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/31029;5;u7

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-04 - $23 / $1.81 = 12.71 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-02-07 - $18 / $1.81 = 9.94 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-03-03 - $19.99 / $1.79 = 11.17 keys

X = 13

X = 11

X = 10

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7419083441 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7418893132 (#3)

#1

Sold for Smoking Armored Authority

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043458802#!/compare/1546128000/1546214400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056571743#!/compare/1546214400/1546387200

Way too high now, excluding.

#2

Sold for Smoking Rubber Glove + Vintage Spec. KS Lugermorph

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134266699#!/compare/1546819200/1546905600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053418437#!/compare/1546819200/1546905600

Way too high now, excluding.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091983578#!/compare/1551312000/1551484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063336600#!/compare/1550016000/1551657600

Probably marketplace

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/ECp0Cbp.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7489958894 - 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7427635935 - 11 keys

Sales at:

9.5 (3x)

10 (2x)

11 (2x)

13

14

The sale at 14, and the other two sales in the “other sales” section were all when the hat was new. All these sales are pretty old now, and are clearly too high given the bot selling two for 11 keys now. Excluding these sales.

9.5 is too common to be excluded. Keeping 9.5 in the range.

Going with 9.5-11.