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Frostbite Virus Doctor
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310639803#!/compare/1548720000/1548806400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086044175#!/compare/1548720000/1548806400
Scorching fly guy
42 keys
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086044175#!/compare/1548806400/1548892800
50 keys
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961134832#!/compare/1550016000/1550102400
Untrace
Sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1550188800/1550275200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115354087#!/compare/1550016000/1550275200
41 keys
Sale 5:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198247025190#!/compare/1552003200/1552089600
12 keys, very valuable data point
Sale 6:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083134207#!/compare/1555027200/1555113600
70 keys
Sale 7:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052169787#!/compare/1555113600/1555200000
Amaranthine One-Man Army
45 keys.
_______________
Going 41-50 keys
There’s a buyer at 55 keys
Excluding 6/7 sales because of 1 buyer( collector, so they are buying for keeps , thus paying more than backpack price) is inaccurate of the hat's value.
70 flat would be wrong and the person who paid 70 keys sold it for a 45 key hat the next day.
One more sale:
Mp.tf $85.30 on June 2, 2019
https://marketplace.tf/items/30043;5;u87
Keys that day were $1.81
https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key
http://prntscr.com/nwpcsy
$85.30/$1.81 = 47.12. Rounding to 47.
Still within suggestion range. Looks good to me.