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Unpriced bad
Priced Good
Marketplace.tf sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/31010;5;u115
Feb 1: $80.11 ~ 45 keys
Feb 27: $70 ~ 39 keys
march 13: $123.75 ~ 69 keys
April 11: 55.56 ~ 31 keys
April 27: 106.42 ~ 59 keys
Compare sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210224823#!/compare/1552953600/1553299200 ~ 30 keys pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1554681600/1554768000 ~ 16 keys + a Cool Cardboard Boxed Scorch Shot (Field-Tested)
Mini: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151835897#!/compare/1552780800/1552953600 ~ 20 keys
So this sale is 36 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198401722093#!/compare/1552953600/1553299200 ~ sold for a Searing Plasma Neckwear Headwear (no minis)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1551657600/1551744000 ~ bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1554595200/1554681600 ~ sold for 40 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292542749#!/compare/1555372800/1555459200 ~ 30 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134266699#!/compare/1551312000/1551398400 ~ bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850003204#!/compare/1550880000/1550966400 ~ 36 + 1.45 keys in items, so 37 here
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134266699#!/compare/1550448000/1550534400 ~ 43 keys pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253940521#!/compare/1552608000/1552780800 ~ 48.5
So the current sales are (in order):
30 pure, 30 pure, 31 pure in cash, 36 mixed, 37 pure, 39 pure in cash, 40 pure, 43 pure, 48.5, 59, 69
3 sellers at 40, 3 sellers at 44-45, 1 at 60, the fact that the 60 one is unsold for 3 months shows 59 and 69 as outliers. 48.5 can probably be counted as an outlier as well due to sellers.
Taking 30-43
45 is at 2 months but rest are recent ~ within the week. Id keep an eye out for those
Roger
https://gyazo.com/31c7a02ea9288370805e5ead0ea23429
2 sellers for 1+ Month at 40.
43 seems high now
https://imgur.com/a/HY5W2SR current sellers - it may be worth checking if any other recent sales occurred. All in all this feels on the high side.
Based on the current market I would like to see more here. It seems like the market has significantly shifted downwards. If newer sales are closer together this could get a tighter range. If they are not, then perhaps it is best to let the market settle before pricing this.