Sale 1:

Sold for 22 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198317418604#!/compare/1553904000/1553990400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327807801#!/compare/1553990400/1554076800

https://backpack.tf/item/1323972230

https://i.imgur.com/aYS7JrT.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 22

Sale 2:

Sold for 19 keys + 26 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448207173#!/compare/1558396800/1558569600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1558483200/1558569600

https://backpack.tf/item/1323972230

X = 20

Sale 3:

Sold in a day for 18 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1551052800/1551139200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044844215#!/compare/1551052800/1551139200

https://backpack.tf/item/1323972230

Near ID shows 29 keys matching on the seller’s end, but only the last 18 were involved. 11 went for something else.

X = 18

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 17 keys + 20 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327807801#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448207173#!/compare/1558137600/1558396800

https://backpack.tf/item/1323972230

X = 17

Sale 5:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 17 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047593891#!/compare/1550966400/1551052800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1550966400/1551052800

https://backpack.tf/item/1323972230

X = 17

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 17 keys + 4 ref (Buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394903250#!/compare/1552608000/1552694400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198317418604#!/compare/1552608000/1552694400

https://backpack.tf/item/1323972230

https://i.imgur.com/aYS7JrT.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 17

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/671;5;u6

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-04-25 - $31.5 / $1.79 = 17.60 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-04-27 - $43.6 / $1.8 = 24.22 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-05-11 - $44.09 / $1.79 = 24.63 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-05-11 - $43.65 / $1.79 = 24.39 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-05-15 - $50 / $1.82 = 27.47 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MV5V723M - B/O of 25 on 27/4

X = 27

X = 25

X = 24 (2x)

X = 18

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/1323972230 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/630884364 (#2-6)

https://backpack.tf/item/3042253334 - gambled/tradeit

https://backpack.tf/item/734172268 - marketplace, one of the may 11th sales

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044844215#!/compare/1552521600/1552694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394903250#!/compare/1552608000/1552694400

#2

Sold for Stormy Tough Stuff Muffs?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024867201#!/compare/1555804800/1555891200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214513491#!/compare/1555718400/1555891200

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4Z5V3X1M - B/O of 32

Assuming this sale is correct, it’s a large outlier, and would be excluded anyways.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214513491#!/compare/1555977600/1556236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1556064000/1556150400

Probably the one that sold to marketplace

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065445255#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198438173007#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400

#5

Bulk for Logo Woodsman in an auction

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198438173007#!/compare/1557273600/1557446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087494715#!/compare/1557360000/1557446400

#6

Bulk for Strange GE War Pig

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087494715#!/compare/1557619200/1558224000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/natsikW.png

https://backpack.tf/item/1323972230 - 25 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5427184864 - 35 keys

Sales at:

17 (3x)

18 (2x)

20

22

24 (2x)

25

27

https://i.imgur.com/E32qtuY.png - Buyers outweight the sales at 17, so I’ll keep 17 excluded for now. Will keep 18 though.

Definitely excluding 27, not solely due to the young seller at 25, but due to B/O’s being common at 25 or under in the last few months, and due to the range already being large as it is.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQ1JNZ34

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/46VL760M

About 4 or 5 different sellers at or lower than 25 in just 2 links, supporting my earlier statement about B/O’s being common at or under 25. Including 25 with marketplace sales only is already a bit of a stretch.

Going with 18-25.