Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + 35 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147454456#!/compare/1557532800/1558569600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1558483200/1558569600

https://backpack.tf/item/7734111779

X = 4.5

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for ~4.5 keys (metal on buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176601995#!/compare/1559088000/1559520000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1559433600/1559520000

https://backpack.tf/item/6751826930

X = 4.5

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30919;5;u3009

The only marketplace sale in the last month is about a dollar higher than the 3 others listed on marketplace currently, which are also significantly higher than the ones listed on the classifieds.

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7734111779 (#1, others were gambled)

https://backpack.tf/item/7425897071 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6751826930 (#3, everything else gambled)

https://backpack.tf/item/6748381700 - untraceable private inventory on seller’s end, probably scm

https://backpack.tf/item/6949820865 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/6711712950 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6474723887 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198399655137#!/compare/1558915200/1560470400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396322888#!/compare/1558915200/1559001600

#2

Untraceable, probably scm

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322994779#!/compare/1557964800/1558137600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109845197#!/compare/1553904000/1559865600

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198848622849#!/compare/1559692800/1559779200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1559692800/1559779200

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/bWVOtN3.png

https://i.imgur.com/KiZprHz.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7734111779 - ~4.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6460787259 - ~4.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6949820865 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6512183670 - ~5.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6740427564 - ~5.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6463314082 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6939984152 - ~6.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6692946613 - 7 keys

Sales at:

4.5 (2x)

The two sellers at ~4.5 keys (after rounding) support the drop here.

Going with 4.5 flat.