Using last 2 months.

Sale 1:

Sold for ~3 keys in taunts

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867871699#!/compare/1558742400/1558828800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323051450#!/compare/1558742400/1558828800

https://backpack.tf/item/5774980319

X = 3

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873165470#!/compare/1557532800/1557619200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1557532800/1557619200

https://backpack.tf/item/3875834795 (ignored the gambling in the history)

https://i.imgur.com/97NmAQk.png - labelled as 3 keys + 4 ref. Even if the ref was involved, it wouldn’t affect the sale’s value.

X = 3

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/5058377155 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6748800305 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/3596056788 (#3, ignored gambling)

https://backpack.tf/item/6988952226 - scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/3850881283 - site bots

#1

Untraceable, no keys on the buyer’s end match.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961779817#!/compare/1560556800/1560643200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396322888#!/compare/1560556800/1560643200

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029074524#!/compare/1556064000/1556150400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099132915#!/compare/1555977600/1556150400

#3

Untraceable, probably missing a person in the history

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1557360000/1557446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055747230#!/compare/1557360000/1557446400

https://i.imgur.com/97NmAQk.png - labelled as 3 keys + 40 ref

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/ispA9RN.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5058377155 - ~3.1 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3848221537 - ~3.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3844922926 - ~3.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3611174120 - ~3.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6754577677 - ~6.3 keys

Sales at:

3 (2x)

Even if the 3 key + 40 ref sale was traceable (would round to 4 keys), it would be excluded, as it would be higher than the other sales, and the seller we currently have.

Going with 3 flat.