Goodbye stupid-ass dumb-ass range :)

Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold for 7 keys + 13 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1559520000/1559606400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198417576637#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800

https://backpack.tf/item/6480898120

https://i.imgur.com/8LzekzR.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 7

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 6 keys + 26 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053931892#!/compare/1560211200/1560297600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1560211200/1560297600

https://backpack.tf/item/6462186415

https://i.imgur.com/8LzekzR.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 6.5

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 6 keys + 1 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197992659090#!/compare/1560729600/1560816000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1560729600/1560816000

https://backpack.tf/item/7427613941

https://i.imgur.com/8LzekzR.png - bot.tf confirms

Everything else in the history after this (apart from the bot owner withdrawing from the bot) appears to have been gambled or unusable.

X = 6

Sale 4:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030383222#!/compare/1561334400/1561420800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024867201#!/compare/1561334400/1561420800

https://backpack.tf/item/6512754203

X = 5

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30919;5;u3010

$15.30 on June 11th

$10.01 on June 24th

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-06-24 - $10.01 / $1.84 = 5.44 keys

The $15 sale will end up being around 8+ keys, which is higher than most sellers right now.

X = 5.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7367131521 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7040456031 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6467565380 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6462186415 (#4-8)

https://backpack.tf/item/6487635959 - allllll gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/7086481727 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7420228587 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/7414314074 - tradeit

#1

Sold to a bot for 6 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200970331#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800

https://i.imgur.com/8LzekzR.png - Labelled as 6 keys + 27 ref. It’s likely the seller sold the metal for keys on the same day. Not worth checking through all the ref on the buyer’s end.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212303063#!/compare/1560297600/1560902400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802465612#!/compare/1560384000/1560470400

1 key and some metal match on the seller’s end. I looked through a couple keys on the buyer’s end and didn’t find any matches. Either I’m really unlucky, or the keys aren’t traceable on the buyer’s end either.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064104470#!/compare/1559520000/1560211200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080808118#!/compare/1559692800/1560038400

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198963003558#!/compare/1558742400/1558915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1558828800/1558915200

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030214998#!/compare/1558742400/1558915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802465612#!/compare/1558915200/1559001600

https://i.imgur.com/8LzekzR.png - labelled as a 6 key + 27 ref purchase

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802465612#!/compare/1559433600/1559520000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198883188648#!/compare/1559433600/1559520000

#7

Bulk?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198883188648#!/compare/1559433600/1559520000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320030042#!/compare/1559433600/1559520000

#8

Bulk? for aus minigun

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320030042#!/compare/1560211200/1560297600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053931892#!/compare/1560211200/1560297600

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/HACBV4L.png

https://i.imgur.com/SqvJoaQ.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7040456031 - ~6.6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6462186415 - ~6.6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7105863573 - 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7367131521 - ~7.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6512754203 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6524659604 - ~8.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6774264770 - 12 keys

Sales at:

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

https://i.imgur.com/QfPgicj.png - buyers are only as high as ~4.5 keys. Buyers have severely dropped their price over the last month (supporting my decision to use only the last month worth of sales). Not excluding sales that went to buy orders here with this in mind.

Going with 5-6.5.