Sale 1:

Sold for Cloudy Moon Scotch Bonnet (Suggestion at 65)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040186479#!/compare/1562630400/1562716800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039846030#!/compare/1561680000/1562716800

https://backpack.tf/item/7321815871

Couldn’t find a B/O.

X = 65

Sale 2:

Sold for Cool Well Worn Aloha Anodized Rocket Launcher (24) + Cool Well Worn Masked Mender Medi Gun (Suggestion at ~26.5) + ~3.5 keys in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1561680000/1561766400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351184262#!/compare/1561507200/1561766400

https://backpack.tf/item/7771707944

X = 54

Sale 3:

Sold for 49 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286234945#!/compare/1562544000/1562630400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148836514#!/compare/1562544000/1562630400

https://backpack.tf/item/7771707944

X = 49

Sale 4:

Sold for Blizzardy Storm Brown Bomber (Suggestion at 41) + 7 keys in auction

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351184262#!/compare/1562198400/1562371200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286234945#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

https://backpack.tf/item/7771707944

X = 48

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 45 keys + 5 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038070401#!/compare/1558224000/1559001600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198847672167#!/compare/1558828800/1558915200

https://backpack.tf/item/7314188307

X = 45

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31011;5;u121

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-05-01 - $71.05 / $1.81 = 39.25 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-05-03 - $105 / $1.8 = 58.33 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-05-15 - $99 / $1.82 = 54.40 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-06-24 - $80 / $1.84 = 43.48 keys

X = 58

X = 54

X = 43

X = 39

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7771707944 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7585310374 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7422389846 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/7260583285 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7852986818 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/7640064612 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7279810988 - marketplace

#1

Sold with several keys in items for Strange Normal Flamethrower

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071232959#!/compare/1561248000/1561420800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1561248000/1561334400

Should be used on the Flamethrower.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1561593600/1561680000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1561593600/1561680000

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1557792000/1557878400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867661640#!/compare/1557792000/1557878400

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1556582400/1556668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024#!/compare/1556582400/1556668800

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056366107#!/compare/1556928000/1557446400

Cool Well-Worn Masked Mender Medi Gun:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d2d26f9d3817226fd45082b

Blizzardy Brown Bomber:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d2d3977d38172313c301bdc

Cloudy Moon Scotch Bonnet:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d2d8546d3817262f832b83d

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/2RtYnnZ.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7314188307 - 60 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7321815871 - 66 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7399328115 - 70 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7255589470 - 120 keys

Sales at:

39

43

45

48

49

54 (2x)

58

65

https://i.imgur.com/A3Sq7VT.png - Buyer at 47, excluding anything lower.

Lowest seller is a fair bit lower than the sale at 65, and the sale at 65 is already looking like an outlier compared to other sales. Excluding 65.

Going with 48-58.