Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold for 2 keys + ~1 key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1562544000/1562630400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1562544000/1562630400

https://backpack.tf/item/7883358024

https://i.imgur.com/rG3flDb.png - labelled as 2 keys + 48 ref on bot.tf

X = 3

Sale 2:

Sold for 3 keys + 10 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080771348#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800

https://backpack.tf/item/2718395347

https://i.imgur.com/rG3flDb.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 3

Sale 3:

Sold for 3 keys + 10 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198293466954#!/compare/1562198400/1563148800

https://backpack.tf/item/7883358024

https://i.imgur.com/rG3flDb.png - labelled as 3 keys + 10 ref on bot.tf

Only 3 keys + 4 ref match, but either round to 3 keys. It’s likely the seller used some of the ref for the two other taunts purchased later in the day.

X = 3

Sale 4:

Sold for 3 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1561852800/1561939200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199886819#!/compare/1557964800/1563408000

https://backpack.tf/item/3020420367

X = 3

Sale 5:

Sold for 2 keys + 28 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073269221#!/compare/1563321600/1563408000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357093059#!/compare/1563321600/1563408000

https://backpack.tf/item/7575400751

https://i.imgur.com/rG3flDb.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 2.5

Sale 6:

Sold for Bill’s (~1.8) + Taunt (~0.9)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1562716800/1562803200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131876045#!/compare/1562630400/1562803200

https://backpack.tf/item/7883358024

X = 2.5

Sale 7:

Sold for ~2 keys in taunts (buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103731491#!/compare/1562803200/1562889600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179663741#!/compare/1562371200/1562889600

https://backpack.tf/item/7883358024

X = 2

Marketplace:

Marketplace sales roughly support the suggested value, though they are really not so important here, as the common trading point is already pretty well defined with the sales we have, reinforced by sellers and buyers.

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1117;5;u3004

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7883358024 (#1-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/3039337105 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/3021111582 (#6-9)

https://backpack.tf/item/2693596944 (#10)

https://backpack.tf/item/7425366618 - mannco bots

https://backpack.tf/item/3397575182 - scrap, also untraceable bot.tf purchase at 2 keys + 28 ref

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198408343776#!/compare/1562457600/1562716800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1562457600/1562544000

https://i.imgur.com/rG3flDb.png - Labelled as 2 keys + 28 ref (~2.5 keys)

#2

Sold for 2 keys + 16 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131876045#!/compare/1562803200/1562889600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103731491#!/compare/1562803200/1562889600

I feel like more was involved, and spent on the taunt visible on the seller’s end. If not, this’ll fit in the range anyways.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179663741#!/compare/1562371200/1562889600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357093059#!/compare/1562803200/1562889600

https://i.imgur.com/rG3flDb.png - Labelled as 2 keys + 30 ref (~2.5 keys)

#4

Untraceable, missing a person in the history

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357093059#!/compare/1562803200/1562889600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800

https://i.imgur.com/rG3flDb.png - Labelled as a 2 key + 28 ref purchase (~2.5 keys)

#5

Untraceable, missing a person in the history

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354665416#!/compare/1563235200/1563321600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1563235200/1563321600

https://i.imgur.com/rG3flDb.png - Labelled as a 2 key + 28 ref purchase (~2.5 keys)

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198416395887#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003926663#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003926663#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141477086#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141477086#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069472823#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069472823#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030383222#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

last few were probably gambled

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063075911#!/compare/1562889600/1562976000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1562889600/1562976000

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/edFh5pv.png

https://backpack.tf/item/2693596944 - ~2.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7575400751 - ~2.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3397575182 - ~2.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5081957915 - 5 keys

Sales at:

2

2.5 (2x)

3 (4x)

2 is an outlier, excluding 2.

Many buyers at ~2.5, but purchases are 2.5 are fairly common (some untraceable), and 3 flat won’t work with sellers less than 3 keys. Keeping 2.5

Going with 2.5-3.