60% DROP INCOMING

Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199524809#!/compare/1561766400/1562284800

https://backpack.tf/item/4264070222

X = 5

Sale 2:

Sold for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1563235200/1563321600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049322925#!/compare/1563235200/1563321600

https://backpack.tf/item/5662924027

https://i.imgur.com/mVEPPcQ.png - bot.tf confirms

Item was gambled afterwards

X = 5

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 30 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169934498#!/compare/1563408000/1563494400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1563580800/1564531200

https://backpack.tf/item/6733234700

https://i.imgur.com/mVEPPcQ.png - labelled as 3 keys + 32 ref

X = 3.5

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 32 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095862827#!/compare/1563580800/1563667200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1563580800/1563667200

https://backpack.tf/item/4631778077

https://i.imgur.com/mVEPPcQ.png

X = 3.5

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 4 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135245669#!/compare/1563926400/1564099200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1564012800/1564099200

https://backpack.tf/item/4743858446

https://i.imgur.com/mVEPPcQ.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 3

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30673;5;u3001

$9.70, Jul 1st

$9.70, Jul 4th

$5.29, Jul 18th

$7.84, Jul 28th

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-01 - $9.7 / $1.83 = 5.30 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-04 - $9.7 / $1.84 = 5.27 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-18 - $5.29 / $1.82 = 2.91 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-28 - $7.84 / $1.8 = 4.36 keys

X = 5.5 (2x)

X = 4.5

X = 3

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7813864833 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7029463028 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6089601891 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6042761960 (#4 & #5)

https://backpack.tf/item/4743858446 (#6 & #7)

https://backpack.tf/item/4631778077 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/4264070222 (#9)

https://backpack.tf/item/7114180165 (#10)

https://backpack.tf/item/5397095461 - not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/6754302403 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6478718667 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/4436435149 - scammer

#1

Bulk/transferred between friends

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060898226#!/compare/1563148800/1564444800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003182128#!/compare/1564272000/1564444800

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067192124#!/compare/1563408000/1563667200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127878345#!/compare/1560643200/1563494400

#3

Backpack purchase

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065854668#!/compare/1562630400/1562716800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1562630400/1562716800

#4

Untraceable/bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049677507#!/compare/1563408000/1563494400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063153404#!/compare/1563580800/1563667200

#5

Untraceable/bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063153404#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062797298#!/compare/1563580800/1563840000

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064982470#!/compare/1562025600/1562198400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1562630400/1562716800

https://i.imgur.com/mVEPPcQ.png - labelled as 3 keys + 32 ref

Most likely wasn’t the listed seller here.

#7

Untraceable, only 2 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135245669#!/compare/1562457600/1563148800

https://i.imgur.com/mVEPPcQ.png - labelled as 5 keys

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197983122922#!/compare/1562457600/1563494400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095862827#!/compare/1563321600/1563408000

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286341212#!/compare/1561593600/1562112000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1562025600/1562112000

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1563321600/1563408000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279609240#!/compare/1563062400/1563408000

https://i.imgur.com/mVEPPcQ.png - labelled as 5 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/57NXgNe.png

https://i.imgur.com/cafi4DJ.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6887696449 - ~4.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4631778077 - ~4.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6733234700 - ~4.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7114180165 - ~4.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4743858446 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4255724633 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4276729537 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6528590448 - 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5374168214 - 18 keys

Sales at:

3 (2x)

3.5 (2x)

4.5

5 (2x)

5.5 (2x)

Excluding 3 due to buyers being higher than 3, and due to 3 not being too common, though I’ll be keeping 3.5. There’s only one buyer and it’s significantly higher than the others.

Excluding 5 and 5.5 due to large quantities of sellers for less than 5, as well as 5.5 only being marketplace sales, which aren’t as high-priority as real pure sales.

Going with 3.5-4.5.