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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068018482#!/compare/1560643200/1560729600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064646061#!/compare/1560643200/1560729600
173 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1557532800/1557792000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068018482#!/compare/1557705600/1557878400
50 keys, Spooky Night Conga, Death at Dusk Festive Tree
//
Spooky Conga:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3021
June 24 - $55.00 / 1.84 = 30 keys
July 6 - $68.50 / 1.85 = 37 keys - Buyout 35 keys https://gyazo.com/940acac2436ed838fc969b0193d292fc
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028619405#!/compare/1559174400/1560988800
Bulk
July 6 Marketplace sale:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068018482#!/compare/1557705600/1557878400
35 key buyout, eventually sold to buy order here:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126571115#!/compare/1562544000/1562630400
32 keys + refined
Also as seen in the buyout cap for the marketplace sale, 30 keys was the quickbuy price for this item, which rules out the June 24 sale.
https://backpack.tf/item/3697787182
In this, after receiving the Conga, it sold for:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087667777#!/compare/1557878400/1557964800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1557792000/1558051200
24 keys + ~25 keys in sweets
and then he goes and sells it to itrem, who quickbuys halloween taunts.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040073503#!/compare/1558656000/1558742400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087667777#!/compare/1558656000/1558742400
Ultimately, there is no mini for the Spooky Conga.
//
Death at Dusk Tree:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d4596386780721c0e538d88
If Spooky Conga had a mini, it would be around 35 keys, but all those prices are quickbuys. Only real sale is a sale at 49 and then it gets dumped to a quickbuyer soon after. If Conga was 49 keys, the second sale would be around 175 keys.
Buyout was 180. https://gyazo.com/0244409f36e6e5d93f0928a7e11a7421
The "24 keys + ~25 keys in sweets" Conga sale had a B/O of 40:
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WOD99ZY
Given all sales you have, taking 30-40 for it should be just fine as a mini.
Taking conga as 35, second sale would be a bit lower and this would need a range.