Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold for 4 keys (ID’s match)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1563926400/1564012800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296207797#!/compare/1563840000/1564617600

https://backpack.tf/item/4414562775

7953345701 in “Near ID”

X = 4

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + a small amount of metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232146376#!/compare/1564617600/1564876800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1564531200/1564617600

https://backpack.tf/item/6124575669

https://i.imgur.com/kIo6hnj.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 3

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30618;5;u3010

$6.73, Jul 7th

$6.80, Jul 13th

$6.85, Jul 23rd

$6.85, Jul 30th

$6.40, Aug 3rd (2x)

$5.50, Aug 3rd

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-07 - $6.73 / $1.83 = 3.68 keys (3.5)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-13 - $6.80 / $1.82 = 3.74 keys (3.5)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-23 - $6.85 / $1.81 = 3.78 keys (4)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-30 - $6.85 / $1.8 = 3.81 keys (4)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-08-03 - $6.40 / $1.82 = 3.52 keys (3.5, 2x)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-08-03 - $5.50 / $1.82 = 3.02 keys (3)

X = 4 (2x)

X = 3.5 (4x)

X = 3

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6124575669 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/4748608392 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/4414562775 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/4404938517 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/7555673698 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7451599855 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/4509337204 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7062861016 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/6300347039 - scrap

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060887042#!/compare/1562976000/1563062400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155110999#!/compare/1562976000/1563062400

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802465612#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802465612#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

Not listed on bot.tf

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1563580800/1563667200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085025087#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600

Was sold back to the seller, which also Is untraceable, with the buyer here privating their backpack before the tradeback.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198965695956#!/compare/1562198400/1562803200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1562716800/1562803200

https://i.imgur.com/kIo6hnj.png - labelled as 3 keys + 42 ref on bot.tf. Also a Bot.tf sale at 3 keys + 49 ref in the history, but the next in the history appears to be a banned account that is tied to gambling, so I’m not gonna bother with that here.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/HgNDQNb.png

https://i.imgur.com/XLMvQT0.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6740728589 - ~3.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4412808332 - ~3.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6124575669 - ~3.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4748608392 - ~3.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7749142574 - ~3.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7768672292 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5378462923 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4749129284 - 7 keys

Sales at:

3 (2x)

3.5 (4x)

4 (3x)

Way too many sellers at ~3.5 keys. Excluding 4.

Going to include 3 here, not sure how reliable the highest current buyer is, and we have a couple sales at 3.

Going with 3-3.5