Using last month.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1119;5;u3005

$7.70, Jul 23rd

$5.92, Jul 24th

$7.70, Jul 26th

$7, Aug 5th

$5.90, Aug 6th

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-23 - $7.7 / $1.81 = 4.25 keys (~4.5)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-24 - $5.92 / $1.8 = 3.29 keys (~3.5)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-26 - $7.70 / $1.82 = 4.23 keys (~4)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-08-05 - $7 / $1.83 = 3.83 keys (~4)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-08-06 - $5.9 / $1.84 = 3.21 keys (~3)

X = 4.5

X = 4 (2x)

X = 3.5

X = 3

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/4460976747 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/4248746879 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/4248746879 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/3948629944 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/2711863937 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/4760246407 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026734458#!/compare/1562716800/1563494400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802991149#!/compare/1563926400/1564012800

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334559541#!/compare/1562544000/1562630400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1562544000/1562630400

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1563840000/1563926400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210096939#!/compare/1547164800/1564012800

Only 15 ref matches.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0DZ2OWX - most likely sold for 3 keys + 15 ref, which is ~3.5 keys.

#4

Untraceable, most likely marketplace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061464918#!/compare/1564358400/1564444800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096301015#!/compare/1564876800/1564963200

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259296123#!/compare/1562889600/1563235200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119606908#!/compare/1562803200/1563148800

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/8gcpHVI.png

https://backpack.tf/item/2865842300 - ~2.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3454060694 - ~3.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7525562999 - ~3.6 keys

Sales at:

3

3.5

4 (2x)

4.5

https://i.imgur.com/1VW6R09.png - Only bot.tf stats we have are older than a month, and they're all 3.5 keys or higher, so excluding them is a good idea considering the change in the market since then.

Two sellers for less than 3.5 keys. Excluding 3.5 and higher. The seller a fair bit less than 3 keys should help balance out the fact that I’m excluding 4/5 sales here, which is due to a market shift.

Going with 3 flat for now. Will re-suggest if necessary.

Closing as per new rounding rule, as well as new possible sales. May pick this up again if this item is untouched during the suggestion event.