Re-suggesting, using sales from last suggestion onwards.

The Sale:

Sold for 4 keys?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1564790400/1564876800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361451660#!/compare/1564790400/1564876800

https://backpack.tf/item/7214878475

https://i.imgur.com/byZWwF6.png - Labelled as 4 on bot.tf

Buyer appears to gamble, keys on the seller’s end come from another gambler, I’d say this is very likely to have sold for those 4 keys.

Using last month.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30671;5;u3010

$5.37, Jul 28th

$8, Jul 8th

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-08 - $8 / $1.83 = 4.37 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-07-28 - $5.37 / $1.8 = 2.98 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-08-02 - $7 / $1.81 = 3.87 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-08-06 - $7 / $1.84 = 3.80 keys

X = 4.5

X = 4 (2x)

X = 3

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/5259506773 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/4739047205 (#2 & #3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6693213230 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/4406411554 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7747635959 (#6)

https://backpack.tf/item/7889494175 - gambled/scm

https://backpack.tf/item/4745657468 - scrap/marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/4416389612 - scrap

#1

Untraceable, probably marketplace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1564099200/1564185600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052915226#!/compare/1472428800/1564358400

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453417865#!/compare/1564272000/1564358400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198374431966#!/compare/1564272000/1564358400

https://i.imgur.com/cxHjX3y.png - labelled as a 3 key sale

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870144729#!/compare/1561593600/1563321600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453417865#!/compare/1562630400/1562716800

https://i.imgur.com/cxHjX3y.png - labelled as a 3 key + 15 ref purchase (~3.5 keys)

#4 & #5

Untraceable. Two different copies sold in the same compare links.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1564617600/1564704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361451660#!/compare/1564617600/1564704000

https://i.imgur.com/u2bxK7B.png - labelled as ~3.5 keys

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1564790400/1564876800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1564790400/1564876800

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/0AkhSzX.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6693213230 - ~3.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7747635959 - ~3.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7214878475 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4565337963 - 6 keys

Sales at:

3

4

4.5

4.5 is a large outlier, excluding.

Bot.tf sale at 3 supports. Ignoring the ~3.5 key purchase, as it’s lower than what they re-sold for, and due to the lack of current buyers anywhere near it.[/s]

All sellers from the last suggestion have sold or are not listed. There are now no sellers, meaning there’s nothing to counter the marketplace sale at 4.5. Additionally, we now have 3 sales at 4 that would support the high-end.

Going with 3-4.5.

Closing, as per new rule change regarding rounding. May re-open if this doesn't get taken during the event.