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Thanks for Apollo & Torb's help!
Bought for 85 Keys yesterday.
https://imgur.com/a/DONPgXQ
https://imgur.com/a/PntfsOG
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069137737#!/compare/1565481600/1565568000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
Of the 7 existing versions of this hat, the one shown in the trades above is the only one moving recently. Here's a run down of all it's recent trades.
---- Older Flaming Lantern Le Party Phantom Trades ----
---- July 23rd ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035780190#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
Used in a large mix of items to buy an Abduction Captain Space Mann from Ash by Ohaimark. Not usable (I believe).
---- June 25th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035780190#!/compare/1561248000/1561593600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068732040#!/compare/1561334400/1561420800
Cannot tell how much it was bought for from bp compare, however Apollo gathered some great evidence to point towards a $184 trade & a past offer!
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/478000653835173916/593580715271258113/3816e512f141831c68b92db3ccd4f07c.png
Proof of Ohaimark & Apollo's Paypal transaction.
This equates to about 105 Keys, due to the value of a Paypal Key being around $1.75 at the time of the transaction.
Further proof ensuring this to not be an outlier:
https://i.gyazo.com/4365ef721e124e15d6cfbf7752fbdcbd.png
Scott had previously offered about 90 Keys pure, and it was rejected by Apollo.
---- June 10th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068732040#!/compare/1560038400/1560124800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129995083#!/compare/1559952000/1560124800
It appears as though this was also used in a large mix of items by Zeus in exchange for No Aim No Gain's It's A Secret To Everybody Modest Pile of Hat. I assume this too is unusable.
---- June 1st ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158206236#!/compare/1559260800/1559347200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129995083#!/compare/1559260800/1559347200
Bought from My Pp Hard with Zeus' Time Warp Birdcage (37 Keys) + Purple Energy A Hat to Kill For. Time Warp Birdcage's price is currently recent enough to not need a mini. However, the PE Hat to Kill For's price is very old.
---- PE Hat to Kill For Mini ----
---- July 30th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298504614#!/compare/1564444800/1564617600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179047010#!/compare/1562630400/1564704000
Traded from Tradeit.gg for an amount I could not locate. I did a quick google search and was unable to figure out how to find the sell history of their inventory. If there is a way and I'm just being dumb, don't hesitate to let me know.
---- July 25th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074667785#!/compare/1546560000/1564531200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158206236#!/compare/1564012800/1564099200
Cannot find any evidence of a trade. Crap.
---- April 6th ---- (Read in suggestion rules that Mini's can have prices up to 4 months old. Thank god for that.)
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30753;5;u10
Bought for $75. Due to the fact that Marketplace.tf currently no longer shows what Keys sold for during the beginning of April: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
I'd assume the only logical thing then is to "guesstimate" them to be around $1.80 each, since Keys have been around that price point for awhile now. Let me know if this isn't ok.
75/1.8 = 41.667, rounding up to 42 Keys total.
---- End of Mini ----
Therefore, 42 + 37 = 79 Keys for the Flaming Lantern Le Party Phantom.
---- May 4th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158206236#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049512514#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400
Bought from 호우 ! by My Pp Hard for 35 Keys. What an absolute steal.
I checked the history of each individual Key on pp's bp compare btw. There weren't any Keys shown in 호우 !'s bp compare (probably sold them really quick), so I had no choice.
---- End of Older Trades ----
We then have four recent usable trades to work with here, Ohaimark's for 105 Keys, mine for 85 Keys, Zeus' for 79 Keys, and My Pp Hard's for 35 Keys.
We will disregard pp's trade as an extreme quickbuy. Lucky guy.
The newer price should therefore be set to 79-105 Keys.
Hope this is good! Any advice or critiques for price suggesting are welcome. Will take down and resuggest if there's anything wrong.