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~68 keys
stormy
Unusual Plumber's Cap Stormy Storm
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Team 5 Day 2 - BlazingParte


Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/item/5796262259

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097102281#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306288794#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800

Bulky (96 keys for the Cap + another hat)


Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/item/5796262259

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198927172159#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800

(other side is unclear)

Bulky


Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1562371200/1562457600

(other side is unclear)

untraceable

Buy orders: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y95EE2N4


Note: some trades here (https://backpack.tf/item/6221413485) are ignored due to a steamrep user's involvment in these trades.


Marketplace.tf sales (4-6):

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30846;5;u29 (Stormy Storm Plumber's Cap)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 (Key prices)

https://backpack.tf/item/5796262259 (May 31)

= $89.99 / $1.81

= 49.71...

~ 50 keys (no b/o found)


https://backpack.tf/item/6039894041 & https://backpack.tf/item/6221413485

= $80 / $1.83 (Jul 7)

= 43.71...

= 44 keys

= $85 / $1.83 (Jul 8)

= 46.45...

= 46 keys

Both had b/o of 55 keys but will be capped at the price they sold for (https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4JV0EP74)


Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326990029#!/compare/1559260800/1559347200 (wasn't bought on marketplace, no mptf sales match)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119149660#!/compare/1559260800/1559347200

= Sunbeams Frenchman's Beret (36 keys)

= 36 keys (Buy orders at 37 keys: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YDJ8G8RY )


Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1558828800/1558915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326990029#!/compare/1558915200/1559001600

2 keys (untraceable)


Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1558656000/1558742400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839259306#!/compare/1558656000/1558742400

Untraceable


Sellers: https://imgur.com/a/MyJusCj

45 keys: https://backpack.tf/item/5796262259

45 keys: https://backpack.tf/item/6221413485


Summary of key sales: 36, 44, 46, 50

Conclusion: pricing at 44-46 keys, excluding the sale at 36 keys due to being below buy orders at the time.

    Youve reasoned the exclusion of 36, but why is 50 not in your range?

      We excluded sale 50 because there are 2 sellers selling the hat at 45 keys and we kept 46 keys in because it's not too far off 45 keys. Also, it would be ideal io keep 46 in rather than do 44 flat due to there being 4 different sales where we could get prices from.

        That's reasonable. I wouldn't have mind 50 in the range here given how close those sales are together, but this works too. Just wanted to ask since you listed it in your summary, but did not have it in your range :P