Team 5 - Day 2 (Jarool)

Sale 1:

Sold for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1560211200/1560297600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076389655#!/compare/1560211200/1560297600

https://backpack.tf/item/1264789856

X = 12

Sale 2:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076389655#!/compare/1560470400/1560556800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355161116#!/compare/1560470400/1560556800

https://backpack.tf/item/1264789856

X = 11

Sale 3:

Sold with cheap items for Spec. KS Aussie Frontier Justice (~11)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213860372#!/compare/1560038400/1560211200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064659189#!/compare/1559952000/1560211200

https://backpack.tf/item/1326025008

X = 11

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 10 keys + more than half a key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143715421#!/compare/1562457600/1562544000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1562457600/1562544000

https://backpack.tf/item/992944431

X = 11

Sale 5:

Sold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390180657#!/compare/1564185600/1564272000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055972894#!/compare/1563753600/1564272000

https://backpack.tf/item/1139482906

X = 10

Sale 6:

Sold for 9 keys + more than half a key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198801634335#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082294224#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600

https://backpack.tf/item/724237683

X = 10

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/628;5;u34

$25.50, Jul 20th

$22.22, Jul 25th

$21.48, Aug 10th

$12.50, Aug 11th

$21, Aug 12th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings?def=628&q=5&ef=Bubbling&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script - we have no access to past listings on bot.tf

https://i.imgur.com/eqjxABz.png - B/O of 12 on the $22.22 sale

https://backpack.tf/item/992944431 - $21.48 sale?

https://backpack.tf/item/724237683 - $25.50 sale

Can’t confirm anything for the other two marketplace sales.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-20&price=25.5 - $25.5 / $1.81 = 14.09 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-25&price=22.22 - $22.22 / $1.81 = 12.28 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-10&price=21.48 - $21.48 / $1.81 = 11.87 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-11&price=12.5 - $12.5 / $1.83 = 6.83 keys (buy order)

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-12&price=21 - $21 / $1.82 = 11.54 keys

X = 14

X = 12 (3x)

X = 7

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/1908228105 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/1326025008 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/1139482906 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/724237683 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/1818392403 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132741569#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330375142#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064659189#!/compare/1560211200/1560297600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039659875#!/compare/1560297600/1560384000

#3

Untraceable, probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107080823#!/compare/1563926400/1564012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390180657#!/compare/1563926400/1564012800

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198801634335#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198801634335#!/compare/1563580800/1563667200

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/sVWKP5c.png

https://backpack.tf/item/1818392403 - 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/1355698771 - ~13.4 keys

Sales at:

7

10 (2x)

11 (3x)

12 (4x)

14

7 and 14 are obvious outliers. Excluding them.

Going with 10-12.