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Team 5 Day 3 (BlazingParte)
Mini for https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/D%C3%A9tective%20Noir/Tradable/Craftable/33
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/item/618132027
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256998558#!/compare/1560643200/1560729600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258264645#!/compare/1560643200/1560729600
Bulky
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/item/618132027
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256998558#!/compare/1559865600/1559952000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095862827#!/compare/1559865600/1559952000
= 19 keys - Collector's Claidheamh Mòr (7.57 keys)
= 11.43
~ 11 keys (buy orders at 15 keys: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4JNLJ73Y)
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/item/712565374
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044684270#!/compare/1560297600/1560384000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081496581#!/compare/1551139200/1560384000
Untraceable/Unclear
Sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/item/832907699
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1563408000/1563494400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090956917#!/compare/1563408000/1563494400
Bulky
Sale 5:
https://backpack.tf/item/1259328342
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073551747#!/compare/1560902400/1562025600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053727332#!/compare/1560902400/1561161600
Untraceable
Sale 6:
https://backpack.tf/item/1259328342
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105093429#!/compare/1560384000/1560470400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1560384000/1560470400
Unclear/Untraceable
Sale 7:
https://backpack.tf/item/1970608558
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846287608#!/compare/1564876800/1565049600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1564876800/1564963200
= Miami Nights Doctor's Sack (12 keys)
~ 12 keys (buyout: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4W6XVP25)
Sale 8:
https://backpack.tf/item/1970608558
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846287608#!/compare/1564272000/1564444800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295061570#!/compare/1564185600/1564272000
Trade this mini is made for
Sale 9:
https://backpack.tf/item/1970608558
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006544512#!/compare/1564099200/1564185600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295061570#!/compare/1564099200/1564185600
= 16 keys (buyout at 16 keys: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y8EE19DN)
Marketplace.tf sale 10:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/324;5;u30
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
https://backpack.tf/item/1259328342
= $39.99 / $1.85 (Jun 19)
= 21.62...
~ 22 keys (no buyout: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNKG8ERM)
Key sales summary: 11, 12, 16, 22
Conclusion: pricing at 12-16 keys, excluding 11 for being below buyers and 22 as an outlier
It's a bit too inconsistent to remove 11 for being below buyers but leave 12 in, when that too is clearly below buyers (even at the time of the sale (as per your own screenshots), and even now they are at 13). With these data points the only logical outcome would be 16 flat, but arguably its best left outdated since these sales are all over the place.