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~26 keys
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Unusual Flipped Trilby Blizzardy Storm
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Team 5 Day 3 (BlazingParte)


Mini for https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/D%C3%A9tective%20Noir/Tradable/Craftable/33


Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/item/618132027

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256998558#!/compare/1560643200/1560729600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258264645#!/compare/1560643200/1560729600

Bulky


Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/item/618132027

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256998558#!/compare/1559865600/1559952000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095862827#!/compare/1559865600/1559952000

= 19 keys - Collector's Claidheamh Mòr (7.57 keys)

= 11.43

~ 11 keys (buy orders at 15 keys: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4JNLJ73Y)


Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/item/712565374

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044684270#!/compare/1560297600/1560384000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081496581#!/compare/1551139200/1560384000

Untraceable/Unclear


Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/item/832907699

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1563408000/1563494400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090956917#!/compare/1563408000/1563494400

Bulky


Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/item/1259328342

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073551747#!/compare/1560902400/1562025600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053727332#!/compare/1560902400/1561161600

Untraceable


Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/item/1259328342

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105093429#!/compare/1560384000/1560470400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1560384000/1560470400

Unclear/Untraceable


Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/item/1970608558

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846287608#!/compare/1564876800/1565049600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1564876800/1564963200

= Miami Nights Doctor's Sack (12 keys)

~ 12 keys (buyout: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4W6XVP25)


Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/item/1970608558

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846287608#!/compare/1564272000/1564444800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295061570#!/compare/1564185600/1564272000

Trade this mini is made for


Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/item/1970608558

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006544512#!/compare/1564099200/1564185600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295061570#!/compare/1564099200/1564185600

= 16 keys (buyout at 16 keys: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y8EE19DN)


Marketplace.tf sale 10:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/324;5;u30

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://backpack.tf/item/1259328342

= $39.99 / $1.85 (Jun 19)

= 21.62...

~ 22 keys (no buyout: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNKG8ERM)


Key sales summary: 11, 12, 16, 22

Conclusion: pricing at 12-16 keys, excluding 11 for being below buyers and 22 as an outlier

    It's a bit too inconsistent to remove 11 for being below buyers but leave 12 in, when that too is clearly below buyers (even at the time of the sale (as per your own screenshots), and even now they are at 13). With these data points the only logical outcome would be 16 flat, but arguably its best left outdated since these sales are all over the place.