Using last 3 months, labelling all sales over a month old.

Sale 1: (1+ month old)

Sold for ~7.5 keys in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043982289#!/compare/1562112000/1562284800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060795545#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

https://backpack.tf/item/7862504504

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/46DVXRLM - B/O of 11

X = 7.5

Sale 2: (1+ month old)

Sold for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060795545#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096853246#!/compare/1556755200/1562716800

https://backpack.tf/item/7862504504

X = 5

Sale 3: (1+ month old)

Sold with 26.66 ref for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132516061#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154390546#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800

https://backpack.tf/item/6577679672

Keys were ~53.5 ref at the time.

26.66/53.5 = ~0.5

X = 4.5

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30920;5;u3007

$12, June 4th

$10, August 20th (2x)

Couldn’t find either item’s histories.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-06-04&price=12 - $12 / $1.81 = 6.63 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-20&price=10 - $10 / $1.84 = 5.43 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5R5R632 - No noteworthy B/O’s for the August 20th sales

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4JN9ROPY - No noteworthy B/O’s for the June 4th sale.

X = 6.65

X = 5.45 (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7427696288 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6840571868 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6577679672 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6459115382 (#4 & #5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7862504504 (#6 & #7)

https://backpack.tf/item/6788023582 (#8-10, everything else was gambled)

https://backpack.tf/item/6970735489 (#11-13)

https://backpack.tf/item/6852464130 - marketplace/swap

https://backpack.tf/item/6748513831 - swap/marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6697409715 - swap/marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6612825860 - scrap/mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/6531323221 - tradeit

https://backpack.tf/item/6530405953 - not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/6508047127 - scrap, not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/6475929419 - not unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/6465948303 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/6457284235 - not unusual at the time

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198409495222#!/compare/1564012800/1565395200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1563926400/1564012800

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129003996#!/compare/1565827200/1565913600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 3 keys + 20 ref

#3 (1+ month old)

Sold for ’72 Fubar Fanfare + Silver Cyclone Battin’ a Thousand

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154390546#!/compare/1563580800/1563753600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306875720#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0DZQ28Q - No B/O at the time

Not keen on using this sale, as both items involved have buyers that’ll combine to add up to over 6 keys, while this sale has no B/O, and the item itself now has sellers less than 6 keys. Excluding.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107515348#!/compare/1566000000/1566172800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 4 keys + 32 ref

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400202366#!/compare/1561766400/1562112000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1561939200/1562025600

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 4 keys + 35 ref

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1562025600/1562112000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043982289#!/compare/1561593600/1562112000

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 6 keys + 16 ref

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198963983039#!/compare/1559952000/1560816000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1560038400/1560124800

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 5 keys + 32 ref

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1560038400/1560124800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195790934#!/compare/1560124800/1560211200

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 6 keys + 16 ref

#10

Untraceable, 5 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334559541#!/compare/1561248000/1561334400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064933619#!/compare/1561248000/1561939200

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 7 keys

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1559001600/1559088000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240537922#!/compare/1559001600/1559088000

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 6 keys + 14 ref

Gambled until next bot.tf sale

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325529303#!/compare/1559001600/1559088000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1559001600/1559088000

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 5 keys + 32 ref

#13

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1559174400/1559260800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1559260800/1559347200 - not the buyer, but next in history.

https://i.imgur.com/AXEu09y.png - labelled as 6 keys + 16 ref & 4 keys + 30 ref

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/7QpWB1b.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6530405953 - ~5.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6840571868 - ~5.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6459115382 - 7 keys

Sales at:

4.5

5

5.45 (2x)

6.65

7.5

We also have 4 sales at the 6 key + 14 ref to 6 key + 16 ref range, so we can add that to our data point as per the rule change. (Minor difference in value shouldn’t matter)

6 keys + 14 ref occurred when keys were ~47.38 ref

6 keys + 16 ref occurred when keys were ~47.38 ref & 52.33 ref

14/47.38 = ~0.3

16/47.38 = ~0.35

16/52.33 = ~0.3 keys

So we can add 6.3 & 6.35 to the price range.

We can do the same for the purchases at 4 keys + 30 to 4 keys + 35 ref, but that’ll fit into the range anyways so I won’t bother wasting time doing the math there.

Sales higher than 6 keys are countered due to the sellers at ~5.9 keys, excluding them.

Since our sales average lower than 5 keys, we round to 0.05 keys here.

Taking 4.5-5.45.