Price Suggestion
~272 keys
moon
Unusual Counterfeit Billycock Cloudy Moon
59 votes up
24 votes down
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This suggestion was accepted by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

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Currently outdated. Last suggestion was four months ago.


➤ Sale 1 (3/8/2019)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072355915#!/compare/1564790400/1564963200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150669590#!/compare/1564876800/1565136000

➥ Sold for 40 Keys and 0.21 Keys (Sweets) ≈ 40 Keys (Rounding at the closest key)


➤ Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090547538#!/compare/1564963200/1565740800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198824740252#!/compare/1564963200/1565740800

➥ Sold with 14 Keys for Secret Fruit Shoot (64.5)

➥ 64.5 - 14 = 40.5 Keys ≈ 41 Keys (Rounding at the closest key)


➤ Sale 3 (20/6/2019) - 46 Keys (B/O 45)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/602;5;u38

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

➥ Sold on Marketplace

➥ 85 / 1.85 = 45.94 ≈ 46 Keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4JWRGKXY

➥ B/O: 45 Keys (Capping at B/O)


➤ Sale 4 (10/7/2019)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/602;5;u38

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

➥ Sold on Marketplace

➥ 89.99 / 1.84 = 48.9 ≈ 49 Keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WD65J0M


➤ Sale 5 (17/7/2019)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/602;5;u38

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://backpack.tf/item/4300760127

➥ Sold on Marketplace.tf

➥ 97.99 / 1.82 = 53.84 ≈ 54 Keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5WEK69M


The following are non-valid.


➤ Sale 6 - Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198824740252#!/compare/1565481600/1565740800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072355915#!/compare/1565481600/1565740800

➥ Sold with 37 Keys for Hellfire Slick Cut (70)

➥ 70 - 37 = 33 Keys


➤ Sale 7 (30/6/2019) - Outlier

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/602;5;u38

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

➥ Sold on Marketplace

➥ 60.01 / 1.84 = 32.61 ≈ 33 Keys


➤ Sale 8 (17/7/2019) - Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044130442#!/compare/1563321600/1563408000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844249356#!/compare/1563408000/1563494400


➤ Sale 9 (29/7/2019) - Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377421246#!/compare/1564358400/1564531200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046393528#!/compare/1564358400/1564531200


➤ Sale 10 (2/7/2019) - Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116982911#!/compare/1561852800/1562112000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198866514793#!/compare/1562025600/1562112000


➤ Sale 11 (22/7/2019) - Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150669590#!/compare/1563753600/1564012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198345216182#!/compare/1563753600/1564012800


➤ Sale 12 - Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090547538#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800


Conclusion ➺ I suggest a range between 40 and 54, given that the sale at 54 is the most recent. Thus, the mean of the range is 47, which is only slightly higher than the previous suggested price.


Previous Value: 40 - 50 (≈45) Keys

New Value: 40 - 54 (≈47) Keys

Value Increase: ≈4.44%


Special Credit:

➥ To Vincentius and Offline for providing feedback.


Link to my previous suggestion:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d6c5354d3817253266d2ff3#comment-5d6c548167807264ac240f45