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One recently came into existence, meaning it has been sold :O
Sale #1
Traded 1:1 for a clean Purple Energy Noble Amassment of Hats (57 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110934401#!/compare/1566518400/1566604800
Sale #2
Traded with a Holy Grail RPS (10 Keys) and ~4 Keys worth of sweets for a clean Molten Mallard Well-Rounded Rifleman (62 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328984748#!/compare/1566777600/1566864000
All unusuals traded are relatively up-to-date with pricing.
Current owner is selling on mp.tf for $119
$119 / 1.82 = 65.38 Keys (rounded to 65.4 Keys)
This price agrees with proposed price!
Summary
1 traded for 57 Keys in value
1 traded for 48 Keys in value (62 - 14) <--- Round to 50 due to prof ks and skin included in sweets
New price: 50-57 Keys
you'll have to do a mini on the p energy noble, sellers @44k now.
Sold for 58 keys pure: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073435210#!/compare/1555632000/1555718400
Traded with 13k unusual (70 total) for Prof KS Aussie RL + 22k unusual (68 total) meaning traded for 55k overall: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091242337#!/compare/1556668800/1559865600
That sale is too old and too high. Sales have to be within the past 3 months. A full suggestion on it would likely be better here.
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5daa5d0dd381724cf551af57 - New suggestion dropping the Molten Mallard Well-Rounded Rifleman to 47.5 Keys
Cauldron bubbles is not a crate depression effect.
It must be a coincidence that it was unboxed when the crate depression started, I'll edit the comment
"Unlike other effects, these could only be obtained during Halloween season, from any openable crate." How can it have been unboxed recently?