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~3050 keys
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Unusual Exquisite Rack It's a Secret to Everybody
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> history https://backpack.tf/item/1233925858


AF Ballcap (indate 210) + D@D KE (indate 200) + Hmoon sam (no valid mini, take outdated 210) + Scorching Ten (105k, see below) + 120k pure | 845 > cap at 800k b/o

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160856661#!/compare/1567468800/1567555200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176297517#!/compare/1567468800/1567555200


https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y7D9JOJK


Scorching Ten Mini:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/94;5;u14 only valid sale, cant find the history where this took place, but most likely not duped given the only active dupe history https://backpack.tf/item/253503316 doesnt match the date sold


8/6 $194 / 1.84 = 105k


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Torb’s buy was bulk: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793885#!/compare/1560816000/1561334400


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800k flat


Bjork


    What did you buy the ballcap and the KE for?

      Both are in-date? What am i missing here?

        I mean mods keep getting questions about this so I figured I may as well look into it in-depth.


        Those two hats aside, the samur is most definitely not in-date - this is using a year old price to update a 4 month outdated hat. At the last known BO on that, this wouldn't even cap at 800. Even on the last made suggestion (the last previously recorded sale) it wouldnt. Without new sales on the samur I wouldnt have been in favor.


        In that light I went checking whether or not this would qualify to be close enough, and both the KE and the ballcap felt like they were really high.


        The KE's other sale set a high end some 40 keys above the other sale; Ive found another sale that roughly backs up 200, so I guess that one's fine.


        The ballcap on the other hand most definitely isn't. I don't exactly agree with the last update on that - that was made even though the buyer (causing a ~60 key raise) resold it in "bulk"(borderline), 50 keys over a BO which is already 100 keys above the other used sale (not even mentioning the even lower sales there: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d6ab345d38172091938fdbd ). With lack of more data points on that (which is why I asked), that really shouldn't be used anywhere else as that is most likely a couple of dozens of keys too high.


        All in all I feel the uncertainty here is larger than the price change induced here, so it is probably best to close this and wait for it to resell so that a potential range can be issued.

          so, a couple things


          1. The issue keeps being pushed that the rack is less outdated than the Sam. How exactly does that have any bearing at all when the rack cannot be used on the sam?


          2. At "last known bo" (being my own @ 190) it would absolutely cap at 800 (sale would be 825 instead of 845) i fail to see the reasoning there


          3. If we're going to talk "outdated" why even bring up the last suggestion on the sam @ 160 when that too is outdated, almost as outdated as the hat itself, that too should have no bearing.


          4. If the ballcap is too high, why not revert it? If not, why shouldnt it be used here. Calling a sale good enough to price the individual hat but not good enough as a mini on a separate bulk trade is quite a double standard.


          5. Even if the ballcap is too high, and the sam has to be taken at its last known b/o, both are well below the median cutoff for 50% and again would have no bearing


          6. Exactly what uncertainty are you referring to? If a majority part of the sale had controversial minis, thats one thing, but they dont, as i mentioned above both the ballcap and the sam amount to <40% of the total sale. There is no uncertainty.


          7. You and I both know this isnt going to sell before my buy goes outdated, this being closed will not be "waiting for a range".


          Please, address these points, because without them, calling this a close is not based on any logical reasoning or factual conclusions.

            Just because you don't understand something doesn't mean it can't be based on logical reasoning. I don't mind explaining my rationale but most of these points should not be something a black belt struggles with, most certainly not when you've already asked multiple mods about it (and I know at least one of them (me) has already talked to you about this). Your only valid question is 4 in my eyes, and even that is just a soapbox to call us out.


            Point 1:

            Has already been addressed in the discord chat - just because the sale cannot be used in reverse doesn't mean it should use a year old price for a 4 month old one - that makes no sense. If you're looking to update something, i.e to give a more recent indication of a hat's value, why would you then rely on a hat much less recently updated?


            Point 2:

            Has already been addressed in the discord chat (and you damn well know it too because you were the one that bought it): it was listed on tradeit (dare I say for a very long time) at ~145 keys converted: https://imgur.com/a/mhrIPMW


            Point 3:

            So let me get this straight, you have the biggest issues relying on a 9 month old sale for your indications, but you're fine taking a sale established 3 months earlier? Do you not see how that is really ironic considering this whole suggestion is EXACTLY that?


            All I was doing is pointing out that SINCE the suggestion setting its current price was made, the general trend has been that this hat has had lower data points, being a strong indicator that it is really high at current. Just looking at current BOs also shows that, but I tried to get a grasp of how much too high it would be. If the sales since are a dump to tradeit, a sale at ~160, and a sale from tradeit where it has been listed for a good year, at least for some time at 145, one might say that 210 may be as much as 50-60 keys too high


            Point 4:

            As I stated, I do not really agree with that update myself. I presume it was accepted, not realizing how the warpig sale directly conflicted, and since the sale was aging, a decision was made. While not agreeing with it I understand why it was accepted at the time; I can always opt for reverting something, but I typically dont as long as I can understand their rationale.

            That said, it is not unusual for us to accept iffy single-sale cases where we make a note either in the mod comments or in the suggestion comments that its value is probably off by a fair bit due to a variety of reasons, but where we believe it is okay to report the sale as is. We generally grant some leniency with this when it concerns heavily outdated hats where a value is way off (because the USD-key rates that were used at the time really shifted it, for isntance), or collectors purchases, to report values better than current or to satisfy the wishes of collectors to have their sales be reported even though realistically, the value is way too high.


            Point 5:

            I don't understand your logic here unless you're still referring to the same issue as you pointed out in point 1 - in which case: see point 1. If you meant anything else: see point 6 because I believe these two are tied together


            Point 6:

            So you're saying if a bunch of items in total amounts for less than 50% of the sale there can't be any uncertainty even though those items could be way off? what?


            As per point 3 (a summary of my previous comment), the samur is probably 50-60 keys too high based on past trends and listing prices. As per my original comment, the ballcap's other sale is some 50 keys over a BO in an outlier sale, 100 keys above the next highest sale on that (presumably the one that's going to be used there, or at least the one that should be used there). That'd put the ballcap ~150 keys lower. Personally I believe it's best not to rely on either of those data points for other pricing purposes, but that's an 150 key range of sales where only the very highest point was taken. Not relying on either means this is fully impossible, or that you'd take ~150 at which it was priced prior (which shouldn't be done, but which is ~60 keys lower).


            Based on the above, this could be between 50 and 200 keys off, whereas the change induced by this update (and Im going to stress again that it is an update on a recently updated hat) is only 80 keys, and I find that concerning, especially since we're dealing with a raise and the uncertainty is fully due to hats being valued (too) high.


            Point 7:

            Where's the question here? All you do here is state that you don't expect to sell 50 keys above what you've asked us to value this at within 3 months. I can't think of a way that'd support your case or disprove of anything I've said before.

              1. Yes, you mentioned that in discord, though I wouldnt consider it addressed since the value of the sam is such a small part of the sale, and is outdated the same as the rack is. But, I realize outdated values are at mod discretion so I wont argue this one further.


              2. Youre relying on heresay for a bot b/o that wouldnt even cap if it was right or if there was literally any proof to back it up? Im not saying torb is lying, but tradeit has been incredibly deceptive about pricing in the past which is why their sales are not used, so why would a b/o with no proof be even considered?


              Again, I'm not saying torb is lying. But for a system that relys so heavily on proof, relying on the word of someone not involved in the sale is pretty shortsighted.


              3. My issue was calling 160 even considerable when you didnt want to consider the outdated 210. But, per 1, i digress.


              4. While i understand the reasoning there. That still doesnt justify saying a price is good enough for the primary hat but when used as a mini, its "too high".


              5/6. In my experience, most of the time if i have a minority part of the sale that has no mini (less than 50%) taking outdated or aged unsold has almost always been fine. But as with point 1, I'm not arguing this further since sadly the sugg rules have nothing regarding a set %.


              7. Not really a question. Just more pointing out that closing it simply because youre "waiting for a range" when we both know this isnt gonna sell in the next 3 months is untrue.


              None of this was a soapbox or me trying to call anyone out. Rather, the decision seemed rushed so i stated what i saw, nothing more.

        Bulk for arcana pithy