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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065733542#!/compare/1567123200/1567641600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000326258#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600
Haunted Ghosts Tosslecap, in-date at ~42 keys
However, upon receiving the Tosslecap, the user put it back up for 40 keys. https://files.catbox.moe/1s978d.png
Going with 40 keys for the Medi Gun.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065733542#!/compare/1561507200/1561593600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415525729#!/compare/1561507200/1561593600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321556119#!/compare/1560211200/1561507200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415525729#!/compare/1561420800/1561507200
It gets kinda weird, but the only thing that makes any sense is the first and second link.
27 keys went to the pan https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198383491727#!/compare/1561507200/1561593600
Scorch Shot came back from scraptf/marketplace https://backpack.tf/item/2836456834
Scorching Fez came from Marketplace https://backpack.tf/item/636112695 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/223;5;u14
So, 27 keys for the Medi Gun.
What the tossle cap is selling for is irrelevant, unless you're assuming that the tosslecap's in-date price is inaccurate. In which case, you'd need a mini for it.