https://backpack.tf/item/2043557826

Sale #1:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168863803#!/compare/1564704000/1564876800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159410314#!/compare/1564790400/1564876800

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168863803#!/compare/1564790400/1564876800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159410314#!/compare/1565222400/1565568000

Untraceable on buyer's side, but seems to have sold for a burning killer's kabuto.

Kabuto recently sold for 355.55$/1.84 = 193 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/152;5;u13

Either something else was involved or this guy really wanted the kabuto.

Excluding this

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Sale #2:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159410314#!/compare/1565136000/1565568000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046

Untraceable, can't even find it on buyer's side.

Likely a mp.tf sale

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Sale #3:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1566518400/1566604800

Untraceable on seller's side, but was listed for 130 keys for a short time before being sold.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNL7OP0J

130?, quicksale

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Sale #4:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1568246400/1568332800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065400580#!/compare/1568246400/1568332800

Sold for a P.Fetti Bedouin Bandana + 50 keys pure

Bandana recently priced at 230-275, but I had it for a month at 250, so I think it's more fair to take the low end of 230 here.

If this reasoning is wrong, please let me know

230 + 50 = 280

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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/306;5;u73

Sale #5, Aug 7th:

Probably the same as sale 2.

159.99$ / 1.81 = 88 keys

Quicksale

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Not sure about this, but the only valid non-quicksale sale I can see is at 280.