Sale 1:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 9 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090520882#!/compare/1559260800/1560988800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1560470400/1560556800

https://backpack.tf/item/2177708912

This trade occurred before the crate depression.

X = 9.5

Sale 2:

Sold with more than 0.25 keys worth of metal for Green Confetti Airdog (8.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198290053747#!/compare/1566086400/1566172800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882518056#!/compare/1566000000/1566172800

https://backpack.tf/item/7957354869

X = 8

Sale 3:

Sold with ~4.5 keys in pure/items for batsaber (~11)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882518056#!/compare/1566950400/1567209600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080708675#!/compare/1566864000/1567296000

https://backpack.tf/item/7957354869

X = 6.5

Sale 4:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 6 keys + 5 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073856183#!/compare/1564876800/1566086400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

https://backpack.tf/item/7956703804

X = 6

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 6 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338602750#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

https://backpack.tf/item/7957577676

X = 6

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30014;5;u60

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-05-29&price=14.04 - $14.04 / $1.81 = 7.76 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-06-06&price=21.99 - $21.99 / $1.79 = 12.28 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-11&price=19.5 - $19.5 / $1.83 = 10.66 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-22&price=19.37 - $19.37 / $1.83 = 10.58 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-16&price=15.85 - $15.85/$1.82 = ~8.70 keys (doesn’t show key prices this day at the time of making the suggestion)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957295536 - 22nd August

https://backpack.tf/item/2782449538 - possibly May 29th

https://backpack.tf/item/2562928532 - 6th June

https://backpack.tf/item/2782449538 - possibly September 16th

Can’t find the August 11th history.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings?def=30014&q=5&ef=Dead%20Presidents&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script - Nothing useful on bot.tf here.

X = 12

X = 11 (2x)

X = 8.5

X = 8

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957295536 (#1-3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7031482596 - no sales

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066813088#!/compare/1565481600/1566432000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198865704997#!/compare/1566000000/1566432000

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198865704997#!/compare/1566432000/1566518400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058349418#!/compare/1566172800/1566432000

Most likely gambled at this point. Assuming gambling involved for the next few sales.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047421778#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/iMY6SIf.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7031482596 - 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2177708912 - ~7.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956703804 - ~7.55 keys

Sales at:

6 (2x)

6.5

8 (2x)

8.5

9.5

11 (2x)

12

The sales at 9.5-12 were before the crate depression, and were not affected by the current sellers back then. The 9.5 key sale went to a quickbuyer that is now selling for cheaper, and the other two are marketplace sales that are much higher than current sellers. Excluding 9.5 and above.

The sales at 6 were still a fair bit lower than current buyers, and are now outnumbered by current buyers at around that price. Excluding 6. https://i.imgur.com/4Fb6ewl.png

Keeping 8 in the range despite sellers, as the sellers are only a week or two old (they were selling for higher in my first suggestion), and due to some or all of these sales being post-crate depression.

Going with 6.5-8, as recommended by Blaze.