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Taunts, ugh.
SALE 1
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321086881#!/compare/1564531200/1568332800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211276789#!/compare/1565308800/1565827200
SALE 2
Sold for 4 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211276789#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846578992#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800
SALE 3
Sold with sweets around 4 keys for orbiting fire janissary
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846578992#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198845073445#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800
SALE 4
Sold for 6 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198845073445#!/compare/1567036800/1567123200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328040332#!/compare/1567036800/1567123200
Histories of the keys in the second compare link
SALE 5
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328040332#!/compare/1567123200/1567728000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082033972#!/compare/1566086400/1568505600
SALE 6
Sold with strange dancing doe for 4 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082033972#!/compare/1568505600/1568592000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286784386#!/compare/1568419200/1568505600
4 - 0.78 = 3.22 rounding to 3.20 keys
SALE 7
Sold for 3 keys + 23 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286784386#!/compare/1568505600/1568592000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1568505600/1568592000
3 + 0.52 = 3.52 rounding to 3.50 keys
SALE 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16
8.55 on June 29 (8.55/1.84 = 4.64 rounding to 4.65 keys)
10.99 on July 2 (10.99/1.82 = 6.038 rounding to 6 keys)
8.55 on July 20 (8.55/1.81 = 4.72 rounding to 4.70 keys)
5.86 on July 22 (5.86/1.81 = 3.23 rounding to 3.25 keys)
8.49 on July 23 (8.49/1.81 = 4.69 rounding to 4.70 keys)
8.49 on August 4 (8.49/1.84 = 4.61 rounding to 4.60 keys)
8.49 on September 3 (8.49/1.81 = 4.69 rounding to 4.70 keys)
10.99 on September 14 (10.99/1.84 = 5.97 rounding to 6 keys)
5.89 on September 17 (5.89/1.81 = 3.25 keys)
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1182;5;u3001
History of SALE 8: https://backpack.tf/item/6326648027
History of SALE 9: https://backpack.tf/item/7445254922
History of SALE 10: https://backpack.tf/item/6252778614
History of SALE 13: https://backpack.tf/item/6313781415
History of SALE 14: https://backpack.tf/item/7238735251
SALE 17
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219166228#!/compare/1563580800/1563667200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1563494400/1563580800
SALE 18
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234103100#!/compare/1565827200/1567641600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357295855#!/compare/1566172800/1565913600
SALE 19
Unknown, likely scm
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113755458#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219166228#!/compare/1562889600/1563580800
SALE 20
Bulk for orbiting fire crones dome
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161939989#!/compare/1564790400/1565481600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050933686#!/compare/1564963200/1565136000
SALE 21
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146955616#!/compare/1565481600/1565740800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
SALE 22
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414846255#!/compare/1560988800/1562716800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321664804#!/compare/1560729600/1561075200
SALE 23
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414846255#!/compare/1562716800/1562803200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1562630400/1562716800
SALE 24
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031007256#!/compare/1562889600/1562976000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085892173#!/compare/1561248000/1563667200
SALE 25
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061836787#!/compare/1563840000/1563926400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158318072#!/compare/1563840000/1563926400
SALE 26
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287854546#!/compare/1561939200/1564099200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042823991#!/compare/1564012800/1564099200
SALE 27
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042823991#!/compare/1564099200/1564272000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178103105#!/compare/1559779200/1564617600
SALE 28
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178103105#!/compare/1564704000/1564790400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257593711#!/compare/1564531200/1565395200
SALE 29
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257593711#!/compare/1565395200/1565740800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198379995820#!/compare/1566345600/1567123200
SALE 30
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198379995820#!/compare/1566345600/1567123200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143878609#!/compare/1565568000/1567123200
SALE 31
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143878609#!/compare/1567123200/1567209600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1567036800/1567209600
SALE 32
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067002150#!/compare/1564617600/1565136000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067002150#!/compare/1564617600/1565136000
SALE 33
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198836000918#!/compare/1565740800/1566345600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126857412#!/compare/1564790400/1566345600
SALE 34
Unknown, likely scm
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150003505#!/compare/1560902400/1566259200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190797011#!/compare/1561075200/1566345600
SALE 35
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331963023#!/compare/1565049600/1565136000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198270711812#!/compare/1564876800/1565049600
SALE 36
Sold for 4 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198270711812#!/compare/1565827200/1565913600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313797776#!/compare/1565395200/1565913600
SALE 37
Sold for 4 keys + 28.66 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1565740800/1565827200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198181208478#!/compare/1565740800/1565913600
4 + 0.65 = 4.65 keys
SALE 38
Sold for 3 keys + 12.11 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967033208#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
3 + 0.28 = 3.28 rounding to 3.30 keys
SALE 39
Sold for 3 keys + 31 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1563494400/1563580800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125958792#!/compare/1562803200/1563667200
3 + 0.71 = 3.71 rounding to 3.70 keys
SALE 40
Bulk sale for keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090308403#!/compare/1562112000/1562198400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1562112000/1562198400
SALE 41
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287198615#!/compare/1566518400/1566604800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372681544#!/compare/1565913600/1566604800
CLASSIFIEDS
https://gyazo.com/1b6c36bd67d1cf0ad8132e87cda0082c
Sales at 3.20, 3.30, 3.50, 3.70, 4, 4, 4.65, and 6. Marketplace sales at 3.25, 3.25, 4.60, 4.65, 4.70, 4.70, 4.70, 6, and 6.
There are 5 sellers from 3.91 to 4.45, while there are 5 buyers from 3.46 to 3.8. The sales at 6 are suggested to be high due to the sellers at much lower. The sales at 3.2 to 3.3 are suggested to be low due to the buyers at higher. There are a few buyers higher than 3.5, as well as a few sellers lower than 4.7, but I shouldn't be excluding that many sales here. It could also be seen as a conservative drop.
Taking 3.5-4.7 keys.